Nau mai hoki mai and welcome.

This time last year New Zealand was a week away from the end of the level 4 lockdown that broke the chain of transmission and put the country on course to eliminate COVID-19. There were many unknowns back then, not least what the cost of this massive upheaval would be, both human and economic. As our lead story this week shows, that accounting can now begin.

Authors Ilan Noy and Nguyen Doan have crunched the data and come up with a country-by-country, continent-by-continent map of what are known as “lost life years” – essentially, the sum of what has been lost to death, sickness and decline in economic activity. Using the interactive map to see how individual countries fared in 2020, we can also see how the pandemic’s burden has been far from equally shared.

From the global to the local, we’ve known the Alpine Fault will one day deliver a big earthquake, but new research has updated the risk of a major rupture happening in the next 50 years to 75%. As earth scientist Jamie Howarth writes, it’s time to go beyond planning the immediate response to thinking about improving infrastructure and community preparedness.

There is plenty more to read in this newsletter and on our homepage, thanks as always for your support and readership. Until next time, mā te wā and all the best.

Finlay Macdonald

New Zealand Senior Editor & NZ Editor: Politics, Business + Arts

www.shutterstock.com

COVID-19 cost more in 2020 than the world’s combined natural disasters in any of the past 20 years

Ilan Noy, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington; Nguyen Doan, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Measuring the equivalent economic cost of 'lost life years' due to the pandemic allows us to map the true scale of the crisis.

NASA/JPL/NGA

NZ’s next large Alpine Fault quake is likely coming sooner than we thought, study shows

Jamie Howarth, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington; Rupert Sutherland, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

New Zealand's Alpine Fault has ruptured in a major earthquake on average every 250 years. New research shows a 75% chance of the next one within 50 years, and it's likely to be magnitude 8 or more.

As this reconstructed village shows, Vikings made it as far as Newfoundland during the Medieval warm period. Wikimedia/Dylan Kereluk

Climate explained: what was the Medieval warm period?

Frédérik Saltré, Flinders University; Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Flinders University

During the European Middle Ages, parts of the world experienced warming similar to that between 1960 to 1990. But the rising temperatures we're observing now are global and exceed the past record.

Shutterstock/Bruce Stanfield

Road to nowhere: New Zealanders struggle to get the help they need, 2 years on from a funding boost for mental health services

Dougal Sutherland, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

Two years ago an inquiry called for major reform of New Zealand's mental health services, but since then, things got worse rather than better.

www.shutterstock.com

Without evidence of real progress, NZ’s foreign policy towards China looks increasingly empty

Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue might be the most important security alliance you've never heard of – and New Zealand needs to start taking it seriously.

GettyImages

Treating NZ’s far right groups as terrorist organisations could make monitoring extremists even harder

Hayden Crosby, University of Auckland

Calls to ban far-right groups should be treated with caution. Anything that drives extremism further underground risks making the situation worse.

From our foreign editions

What makes a job meaningful and why that matters

Andrew Bryce, University of Sheffield

Work can mean more than just a pay cheque but some of the most meaningful jobs are paid the least.

What’s the risk if Australia opens its international borders? An epidemiologist explains

Tony Blakely, The University of Melbourne

The amount of risk from overseas arrivals depends not just on Australia's vaccination rates, but also on the particular circumstances of the country from which people are travelling.

Zoom fatigue and distracted driving share a common problem: Multitasking

Francesco Biondi, University of Windsor

As remote work continues through the pandemic, workers are experiencing burnout and fatigue brought on by excessive periods of time spent online.

Mars: how Ingenuity helicopter made the first flight on another planet

Monica Grady, The Open University

The maiden flight of Mars helicopter was a significant advance in propulsion technology.

Prehistoric cave painters might have been ‘high’ on oxygen deprivation – new study

Paul Pettitt, Durham University

It's possible that low oxygen levels in caves produced hallucinations – but that doesn't explain the majority of prehistoric art.

How many Tyrannosaurus rex walked the Earth?

Ashley Poust, University of California, Berkeley; Daniel Varajão de Latorre, University of California, Berkeley

Using the incredible wealth of fossil data and a modern ecological theory, researchers estimated population density for the extinct apex predator.

European Super League: why punishing the breakaway 12 could backfire badly

Adrian R Bell, University of Reading; Andrew Urquhart, University of Reading; Chris Brooks, University of Reading

Everyone seems united against the new proposals, but can they really be stopped?

What’s next for Cuba and the United States after Raul Castro’s retirement

Joseph J. Gonzalez, Appalachian State University

Just as Fidel Castro's 2016 death did not transform US-Cuba ties, his brother Raul’s exit from politics is unlikely to do so. But Cuba itself is changing. Eventually, Havana and Washington will, too.