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Monday 11 May 2026
Newsletter 13 - May 2026
In this issue:
- Soil moisture in the root zone
- BOM long-term forecast
- Farming forecaster
- Around the traps
- How to access soil moisture data
Soil moisture in the root zone on 5 May 2026
Figure 1: The 'soil cores' on the map represent soil moisture at 0-80 cm depth on 5 May 2026. Most probes show a return to dry conditions.
The map underneath the “cores” from the Bureau of Meteorology's Australian Water Outlook shows that water in the root zone (0-1 m) is close to average for this time of year across the state.
BOM long-range forecasts
Introducing the Bureau's long-range rainfall and temperature forecasts. This new offering from the BOM, allows you to view the "chance of at least" 5, 10 or more mm rainfall, the “chance of 3-day total” rainfall of 15, 25 or 50 mm and "chance of extremes" such as unusually wet or dry, plus historical averages.
Seasonal Risk Agronomist Dale Boyd suggests the "chance of above median" is most relevant. This indicates if rainfall is likely to be above or below usual for the next week, 2 weeks, 1 month or 3 months. Median being closer to typical than "average" which can be influenced by a few extreme figures (Figure 1).
Figure 2: Bureau of Meteorology long-range rainfall forecast showing that rainfall is likely to be close to median later in May
Figure 3: Example of locality rainfall probability for Kamarooka showing above median rainfall in the third week of May accessed by clicking on the map in Figure 2.
The 1-month and 3-month long-range forecasts are updated each Thursday at 3 pm, and the 1-week and 2-week forecasts are released daily at approximately 3 pm.
Farming Forecaster comes to Victoria
Farming Forecaster is a farmer focused program providing soil moisture and pasture growth information from a single webpage. It displays information on current conditions and the likely range of pasture availability for a 3-4 month period, helping producers to reduce their risks around feed budgeting and stock management. These are provided with historic deciles to indicate how the season is faring compared to previous years.
Figure 4: Screenshot of the Farming Forecaster webpage for Baynton, one of the 4 pilot sites in Victoria
Graziers in NSW and Tasmania have been using Farming Forecaster for several years, The Victorian sites — Bairnsdale, Joel South, Baynton and Warrenbayne — will be launched at the BestWool Bestlamb BetterBeef conference on June 23 in Ballarat. Matt Lieschke, Senior Agricultural Advisor from South East Local Land Services, will demonstrate how the dashboard works.
Farming Forecaster is a collaboration between farming groups, CSIRO, and national and state governments.
Around the traps
Bairnsdale
David Caldwell, Meerlieu
David reports that substantial rainfall in late summer-early autumn has boosted confidence, building a large feed wedge. February-March planted annuals and perennials germinated well. However, a lack of rainfall during April has depleted soil moisture in existing perennial pastures so some of the winter feed wedge has been eaten.
Recently sown pastures that had a summer fallow have germinated, but areas that had been summer cropped are yet to germinate. Rain is needed for germination and pasture growth.
Pictured: New season growth on David Caldwell’s paddock sown last year to Phalaris, Cocksfoot, herbs and clover and grazed by cattle. Photographed on 4 May 2026
Figure 5: Soil moisture data comparing the improved perennial pasture and old unimproved pasture at Bairnsdale, 4 May 2026. The Cocksfoot and Phalaris have utilised most of the moisture from the early autumn break.
Strathbogie
David Hamilton, “Bolarum”
Strathbogie cattle farmer David Hamilton’s fertiliser timing was perfect in capturing late summer rains that filled the soil profile to 80 cm. Despite a dry April which resulted in almost drying the whole profile, pastures have been boosted by early May rains that have given a solid green look to the paddock and delivered a lush cover of clover.
The Cocksfoot and Phalaris pastures were previously a soil acidity demonstration site. These grasses are still present and have been a real strength. David has weaners earmarked for the site in the next 3 weeks and has plans to improve pasture use by installing water reticulation. Planning ahead for a warmer and drier winter, David will be looking to capture the benefits of spring rains.
The Strathbogie Soil Moisture Probe and Weather Station is hosted by the Gecko Clan Landcare Network.
Pictured: Cocksfoot and Phalaris pasture at Strathbogie performing well and ready for cattle weaners. Photographed: 6 May 2026
Harrow
Tim Leeming
The autumn break came in right on average in the last week of April. Late summer rainfall was useful to germinate weeds and green up the paddocks. Poor rainfall over the last two years means that subsoil moisture is still extremely lacking. More rain is anticipated over the next week which is needed to support pasture establishment, particularly in the recently planted annual ryegrass.
Looking ahead, Tim will begin knockdowns in the next week in preparation for permanent pasture and cereals going into the new paddocks on a recently acquired property.
Runoff into dams is still a concern in the district, with more rain needed to support stock water. To secure water supply, Tim has turned to bores and reticulated water supply, demolishing dry dams in the new paddocks as part of the re-fencing program.
As the season progresses, the soil moisture probes will play a valuable role in decision-making around the timing of summer crops, to take advantage of possible summer rainfall associated with an El Nino event, and in deciding whether or not to plant spring Phalaris.
Pictured: The soil probe paddock, previously unimproved annuals, is now under renovation with a Brassica crop over summer. Photographed: 1 May 2026
Compiled by Raquel Waller, Jane Court, James Paulet, Brad Costin and Dale Boyd
Contacting Agriculture Victoria
Call 136 186 from anywhere in Australia for the cost of a local call (except for mobiles and public telephones).
If you are deaf or have a hearing or speech impairment, contact us through the National Relay Service at 133 677 or visit the National Relay Service.
All contact points can be found at: agriculture.vic.gov.au/about-us/contact-us
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