Nau mai haere mai, welcome to this week’s newsletter.

The ongoing occupation of parliament grounds is the last thing any government needs just as the Omicron wave rises. Aside from anything else, as Massey University’s Richard Shaw writes today, at least some voters are likely to view the often ugly spectacle as a loss of control by the powers that be.

These extraordinary events also coincide roughly with the mid-term mark of Jacinda Ardern’s second administration – that's right, believe it or not, there is an election next year. And while the occupation and other pressures are clearly testing the government, there’s no free ride for the opposition, either.

As Shaw argues, the pandemic and the unprecedented MMP majority Labour won in 2020 shifted the electoral landscape significantly. “It seems unlikely,” he writes, “the political centre is where National left it the last time the party was in office.”

There’s more to read here and on our homepage, including Dominic O'Sullivan's analysis of the police’s role at the Wellington protests, and what we might learn from Canada’s eventual crackdown on its own “freedom convoy”.

Take care and all the best till next time, mā te wā.