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Pic: herd of dairy cows with mountains in the background. Text reads: Milking the Weather – Seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry
 
Volume 15, Issue 3: Spring 2024
Welcome to the Milking the Weather e-Newsletter: Spring 2024

In this edition:

Managing seasonal risk successfully

September 2024 farmer case studies

Sarah Clack, Agriculture Victoria Dairy Extension Officer

In the last week of autumn and first week of spring, I caught up with Chris Nixon from Orbost in east Gippsland, John Versteden from Longwarry in west Gippsland, and Evan Nicholas from Biggara in north-east Victoria.

This time around it's 6 months since our last update with them.

As part of hearing about what they’ve been up to since, we’ll find out about how last autumn and winter worked out for them and what management strategies they have planned for this spring and beyond.

Chris Nixon, Orbost, East Gippsland
Chris Nixon image

When Maria spoke with Chris Nixon at the start of autumn, we heard the spring had been very dry with rain coming in early/mid-November and continuing through to January resulting in a wet summer.

The pasture feed wedge was rather good at the time and Chirs had taken a punt on sowing 80 hectares of triticale in spring, on paddocks needing renovation in the autumn, which paid off with a 250-tonne harvest of hay. Renovations on the feedpad had commenced to be finished in the autumn.

Let’s find out what he’s been up to over these last 6 months and what he’s got planned for spring when I spoke to him in late August.

A dry autumn

It has been a very tough autumn. The rain stopped about mid-January with subsoil moisture feeding pasture growth in February. As the season progressed the rain petered out and by the end of May we had only had 150 mm of rain for the year.

As planned, we started sowing in the first week of March, we sprayed out 80 hectares of distichum affected pastures and sowed 20 hectares to perennial ryegrass and the rest to Italian ryegrass.

Over other areas of the farm, as it was dry, the kikuyu and distichum were chewed out which has assisted the ryegrass to complete.

By the first week of April a lot of the sown seed had germinated, and you could see the rows of seedlings. We didn’t receive the autumn break by ANZAC day and by May they seem to have disappeared, and I thought we had lost most of it.

Winter brings rain

In early June it started to rain with 250mm in June and another 130mm in July. With little pasture cover the paddocks turned into a mud heap.

Now at the end of August they look fantastic. You can still see the rows of grass! The last couple of weeks have been sunny weather which has promoted grass growth.

With how well the paddocks have responded I am now thinking we should start sowing in mid-February when things are a bit quieter on farm for us.

Production declined

We fed the cows as best we could, but production was ordinary with a significant decline occurring during April and May and production was down to 10-12 litres per day at dry off.

The cows lost condition during the autumn and were 50 kilograms lighter than they were the same time last year which was disappointing.

This was compounded by issues with the grain auger breaking down during milking affecting the diet while we waited for the replacement to arrive.

We dried the cows off earlier again this year, at the end of May/early June, to give them a longer dry period. We fed the cows heavily in the dry period and have been able to get a fair bit of condition back on them.

At this point in time, we are calving down 560 cows with 65 to go. Our calving was lovely and tight, and the milk is currently pumping with 28 litres per cow per day plus the milk being fed to calves.

Maize silage will be phased out of the diet in the next week or two as we are starting to leave high pasture residuals.

Short sharp joining is paying off

We are really starting to see the benefits of the short sharp calving pattern with the third generation coming into the herd.

Heifers are all cycling beautifully and haven’t had drama with calving problems.

At the first of September there is still 46 days until the joining start date, so the cows have a long period to rest and recover.

At the start empty cow attrition rate was quite high but at the third generation the in-calf rate is really starting to pick up.

The herd’s cell count is around 70-80,000 with very little mastitis and lameness. Our use of chemical continues to fall with only one or two animals being treated at any one time. We are not having to spend time treating cows after milking making milking more enjoyable.

We have also seen very few calf health issues even though it has been so wet.

We have 100 carryover cows which we fed on a full sacrifice system on the feedpad over the winter.

We like to have a few around when we calve down the heifers to assist with the transition as they calve two to three weeks earlier than the main herd.

The carryover cows are being dropped out of the system now and they are all usually sold by mid to late October.

Feedpad upgrades finished

We finished off the feedpad renovations with the geohex put down and covered in fine crushed rock. We were able to get the cows on it in mid-May and it is working beautifully.

The extension has allowed water toughs to be put at the end with cows able to drift off to the access these and additional feed troughs have been added in to give the cows more space.

Geohex laneway trial

There was some left over geohex which we laid on a section of laneway for about 300-400 metres to see how it goes and in the wet we fell in love with it.

The cows were struggling in the mud on the gravel lane ways and when they hit the geohex they went from 1 kilometre per hour to 4.

We are unsure how it will wear on the laneway going forward, so will see how it holds up over the next 12 months.

At this early-stage I am loving having done a bit of it. From the last 3 months it is looking like it could be a really good solution for the 600m closest to the dairy.

Heifers

We have close to 220 heifers to join this year. They were similar weights to last autumn at 200 to 220 kilograms which is under where we wanted them.

We fed them very heavily in the paddock to grow them out with a mix of grass silage, maize silage and grain, at 3kg per head. They have grown out well, with condition on them and cycling beautifully. We start joining them in a few weeks.

Set up for spring

I am feeling happy with conditions at the moment. For this time of year, it is as good as I have seen for a long time. Cows are milking well with a feed wedge of grass in front of them.

Coming out of winter we need to be wet at the end of August to have a good spring and we are damp, getting showers of rain and lots of lovely grass growth, the most I have seen all year.

Spring is looking really hopeful and if we continue to get these showers we should have a really good spring.

The plan ahead

On the maize block we will stick to our usual program of cutting the oat and pea crop for silage to go back into maize over the summer.

We think we will get quite a bit of grass silage. A little bit cut on the dairy platform and hopefully quite a lot off the beef platform.

Making silage is an expensive past time but freighting in fodder is not an option in our location.

At the start of August, I did get a bit excited and spread some urea out on the beef country for the first time in four years.

On the hill country you can see where we put it on due to waterlogging from the wet winter making it nitrogen deficient. On the river flats, where I did a trial plot, we couldn’t see the difference.

If the long-range forecast is to be believed, we should have a reasonable spring and summer.

This year will be steady as she goes, and we see how it progresses to if we do any projects. We will really batten down the hatches and do what we need to do to keep things in good shape. The only project would be to extend the geohex on the laneway.

John Versteden, Longwarry, West Gippsland
John Versteden image

When Maria spoke with John at the start of autumn, the spring was magic and rainfall over summer was well timed. The soil profile was drying in the top 300mm but there was high moisture below with hopes it didn’t get too wet with the farm’s high stocking rate.

The grass was growing well, and pasture walks were paying off with consistent milk production over spring and production up 6.5%. I caught up with John in the last week of August and here is what he shared about autumn and winter.

The right amount of rain at the right time

From February we didn’t get any rain for about 2 months. This was perfect as our soil profile had been quite moist in February, which is not always a good thing. In early April when we had a 100mm rain event followed by a 2-to-3-week period where we got a lot of rain, and the soil profile went from being almost zero to being full again.

I thought we may be in for a wet, challenging winter but then the sun shone and stayed that way for 3 months. Then we had another little spurt of cold, wet weather for about 2 weeks at the end of July, and thought calving will be muddy and horrible, and then the sun come out again.

We seem to have shifted into this weather pattern that is very good at dropping the right amount of rain at the right time, when our soils can handle it, and then leaving us alone for a couple of months, which is almost perfect.

If I compare this year to last year, they are almost identical. Last year was a fantastic season with everybody around here would saying we probably had as good a season as we've ever had. This at this point of the year, I would say, this season is every bit as equal to that.

Milk production remained up

Milk production for the last lactation finished at 9% higher than the previous year. At this point production is up 2% on where we were last year with no changes to cow numbers, infrastructure and grain feeding is currently less than this time last year. With 2 years of good conditions, I need to be careful I don’t become complacent.

Opportunity to tighten calving pattern

With good conditions we have had the opportunity to focus on tightening our calving pattern a little bit. Our calving pattern is tightening up every year. We currently have a 9-week calving pattern, but it may become a 6-week calving pattern over the next few years.

The tight calving pattern is putting pressure on the cows in the herd who have a history of not getting into calf quickly. The dynamics are pretty even with not a big difference between our best and worst cow so culling on other traits is not that helpful. If we could calve 700 cows in 6 weeks that would be magic.

A lot of people ask how you deal with the calf rearing but it is like going into a grand final for footy or netball and you can psych yourself up for it and deal with it. Whereas if it drags on people can get tired and things get missed. When you’ve got a lot happening at once it sharpens everybody up.

I spoke about last time about rearing less heifers and we are going to step numbers down again because our empty rates have been really good. We are a bit pickier about the heifers we keep.

Due to fertility issues seen in the industry we transitioned to a 3-way cross but with improvements in herd fertility we are heading back to a Friesian herd.

Currently we have 180 calves in the calf shed and there are about 10 cross bred calves, last year there was 40 and the year before it was half of them. It is interesting how quickly the colour of the herd can change back.

Strong and healthy calves

I have previously mentioned that we blood test our cows yearly to monitor selenium levels as we have issues with selenium deficiency on this farm. It is like us going to the doctors to get a blood test.

Previous years we have given the cows a long-acting selenium injection in August post calving. This year we actually stepped it forward to when the cows were dry.

This year the calves have been much healthier; from the 600 calves (bulls included) we have only had 3 calf deaths. I believe selenium injection in utero has had a role as it helps the immune system and the weather has also helped.

Pasture renovation

We had anticipated only touching up 2 paddocks last time we spoke but with the dry period we did more than 2 paddocks. It was challenging because you looked at a paddock and thought will we, or won't we, there was a bit of indecision.

We probably did more than we might have needed to, just because we weren't sure how it was going to go. We did about 30 hectares which is about 15% of the farm which is less than the 30- 40% we would normally do.

Given the autumn break we had it is a line ball if we have gained much out of it financially, but I would rather not take the risk because if you wait and leave it to the middle of May before you have done anything it is too late. If you do the numbers on resowing or oversowing it is rarely a negative result financially.

Pasture walks

Pasture walks have continued and remain to be a critical part of management. Even during calving we made sure we found 2 hours to go and do it because it was critical that we get to the right paddock at the right time, particularly on the slower rounds. We make sure we take note of the quality, if there is a weed burden or other issues in the paddock.

The farm is humming

Everything is humming along. We have growth rates 30% above what we normally expect for this time of year. We are still struggling to catch up with it at the moment as it is growing faster than the cows are eating it. As the rest of the herd comes in, I’m confident we will be able to eat it.

Staff seeing the benefit of a good season

The season has been good for the staff too because they can see that it is not always a struggle. When the going gets a bit tough they pay the price a little bit as well. I think they would say this is fairly cruisy, when we've got plenty of grass in front of us, everything seems to flow a lot better.

Windy weather

Windy weather has resulted in a power outage here and our power has been out for the last two and a half days with the dairy and stock water operating off our generator. When the power went out, we used to sit around waiting until the power came back on to milk the cows, these days we go get the tractor and start the generator – daily routine is never interrupted as the generator is big enough to run everything including the house.

We put it in 6 or 7 years ago and cost us, from memory, about $12,000 which is nothing in comparison to the size of the business. The peace of mind the generator gives is invaluable.

Securing fodder reserves

We have good silage reserves of quality silage coming into this silage season. We still have 666 tonnes left over from last year.
This year’s harvest should bring us into a healthy position.

We have enough storage to be able to deal with another 600 to 700 tonnes. If we get another 12 months as good as what we have had, we will create another bunker as I am well aware that is the most vulnerable point of our business being in the fodder market when everyone else is.

Last year’s feed quality was really good as contractors were able to get on when needed. The 9% increase in milk production we achieved will be in part due to the better-quality silage feed as the 2022 season silage was lower in quality with contractors were unable to get on paddocks due to wet conditions.

Due to our high stocking rates our genuine surplus isn’t a significant amount so we contract in growing 500 tonnes of silage each year no matter if it is a good season, bad season or anything else so our contractor can plan on his end.

On our farms we will cut what we can. At our runoff block at Labertouche, we will probably cut 200 to 300 tonnes depending on the season.

Grain is making us money

Our grain to milk price ratio is still extremely attractive at the moment and even if they converge a little bit there is still a reasonable margin as long as you aren’t wasting feed. It is a pleasure milking at the moment. If the season is the same as the last 12 months, bring it on, but we are ready for anything.

Evan Nicholas, Biggara, North East Victoria
Evan Nicholas image

In February, Maria caught up with Evan for the first time and he shared an overview of the operation and how the business manages seasonal conditions.

Evan spoke about the newly installed pivot and the benefits to the farm. He hoped for rain by the 20 March or ANZAC Day at the latest, but the farm was prepared if a delayed break or a dry autumn occurred.

A very long autumn and winter

Back in February things were looking good. We had a wet summer, and it had dried off. We hoped it would rain by the 20 March and we did get some by then, but it didn’t rain again. We didn’t get rain by ANZAC Day, and we probably weren’t that worried at that stage as we had a lot of stored feed.

The perennial grasses tried to grow 3 times but didn’t get along far enough to graze and sat dormant for the next rain.

May came and passed and we still didn’t have significant rain and by this stage we were getting heavy frost after heavy frost, probably the best frosts we have had in over 10 years.

On the 31 May we had the first substantial rain since the last week of January. The paddocks were still brown at this stage.

We were worried the annual paddocks we had sown in March, which had germinated on some rainfall, hadn’t survived but they responded.

In August, we had a dry spell with no rain until the 17th. The weather bought 15 frosts in a row which is unusual as there would normally be drizzle or overcast weather between.

The frost and wind made conditions dry and when the milk truck came down the road you would think it was November with the dust. I was starting to think that this spring may not be great, but we have had rain since.

Those who remember the autumn of 1967 say it is the worst autumn and winter we have had since then.

Pivot provided some green feed

The 88 acres (35 hectares) under the pivot provided feed effectively in March and April when we didn’t have a lot of cow numbers in the milking herd. In May the brand-new motor stopped pumping, and we thought it would be okay to wait for repairs, as the supplier was unavailable to fix it immediately.

One more watering in May would have been great, however being May, what we grazed off wouldn’t have been much more as we were getting massive frosts, and the pivot area probably wasn’t moisture stressed.

Silage reserves kept things going

We milked 580 cows again this season. Early on we sold 30 of the first autumn calvers as it was dry and my uncle over the hill was looking to increase numbers. I was a bit uncomfortable about selling 2- and 3-year-olds autumn cows, but I was happy I did in the end. I haven’t culled to many more like I thought we might of.

In mid-May we opened a silage pit with approximately 1400 tonnes of dry matter in it which we had hoped not to have to feed.

This pit fed all stock, including the dairy cows, 120 heifers, about 400 steers, and 100 other miscellaneous beef cows, for 3 months from mid-May right up to mid-August when all stock were back grazing.

If we were feeding square bales of hay, we would have been feeding the equivalent of over 30 bales a day or 15 tonne dry matter.

Milk production dropped

The silage wasn’t the best quality being from the wet spring of 2022 and resulted in cows dropping 4-to-5 litres per cow per day as we moved from the good quality silage they were eating. To increase the energy density of the diet for the dairy herd we fed more grain in the bale and bought in some corn silage in high density silage bales.

Overall, the litres of milk produced during winter were down about 20% on last year, which was frustrating, we were down a few cows with the 30 sold early and a few others we sold. Looking at milk solids though as we are feeding out, we got a higher protein and butter fat percentage.

Back on pasture

In the middle of July grass was growing well but we held off putting the milking herd on it until the 31 July. We didn’t want to go too early and get around it and then shoot ourselves in the big toe.

On the 20 August we were able to offer grass for both feeds. In the last 10 days grass growth has really increased.
With the dry conditions some of the perennial paddocks have had black beetle damage despite being a variety with an endophyte that is black beetle resistant.

During the autumn when there wasn’t much growth you couldn’t really tell the damage until it started to grow. It is only a small percentage of the farm affected but there are larvae there.

Feed reserves

We still have one pit left of 160 to 200 tonnes of really good silage. It was a pit burnt during the fires which we removed the top off and resealed and covered with dirt.

Worse comes to worse we could have fed the cows until September and if pasture wasn’t growing by then it would have been terrible anyway. We would have had to really look at things. I would say the steers would have been put into groups and fed more grain then picked out to sell. Now we have grass hopefully we will cut a heap of silage.

We didn’t sell the steers

We could have sold some steers but decided not to as most of the cost is in feeding them early on. Some of the steers we did sell were making good money for Friesian steers, so we bit the bullet and grew them out to sell in the spring.

We have just taken 108 steers at 550 kilograms to the block at Tintaldra to grow out on grass. We will probably make a decision and sell them as a group or two in mid-October. We will get them to around 700kg and they should make good money and at least break even.

Once these steers are sold, we will take the 18-month-olds over there for the summer. This will leave the dairy cows, heifers and a handful of little steers on the home farm.

We probably won’t keep as many steers going forward, we only kept 100 steer calves this year whereas the last couple of years we pretty much kept everything. Underlying we anticipate there will probably be changes to how the bobby calf market is operated and maybe deep down we were seeing if we could maintain them if we had to keep them all.

Also, on our farm we can’t harvest all our paddocks and there are long walks for the dairy cows to some paddocks, so the steers do make you money most years when you are growing grass.

Gearing up for silage harvest

They keep talking it is going to be a wet spring so hopefully it is. Our soil moisture is lower than usual for this time of year with 99% of our paddocks trafficable all winter and no springs are running. If we have 25mm weekly from now until the end of Christmas it would be gold.

We need to make the decision to if we go for quality or quantity when it comes to making our silage. Ideally, we want to cut grass for quality, but we may need to cut a bit of grass a bit longer to get some quantity into a pit.

I am hoping we can harvest three to four pits, cutting at least 1000 tonnes of dry matter maybe up to 1500 tonnes of dry matter. I am assuming the first 500 tonne we cut will be high quality then see what happens from there.

Last year our spring was slow, it was a terrible spring looking back on it now. It sort of rained then didn’t rain and then it got hot, and the grass sat there.

The poor conditions were probably masked by the rain in December which meant we were able to graze. I think in the last week here we have grown grass at the highest growth rates since the spring of 2021. The spring of 2022 was terribly wet, and it was hard to do anything and last year there was limited moisture.

Today we need to sit here and decide at what point do we cut. We cut all our own silage, and we have a big cart which allows us to cut 30 to 40 ha a day and get it in the pit.

When we get 4 days of reasonable weather you can get some grass off. Our larger cart allows us to cut grass anywhere on the farm that it is required to cut instead of focusing on one area and leaving other areas that may be ready for cutting for the following week.

We don’t lock paddocks up we just skip them in the rotation. We work on the Feeding Pasture for Profit theory the cows should always eat the best grass and eventually you should have a surplus, in an ideal world.

At the moment, if things keep going like it is now, we will have a couple of hundred hectares of grass to cut in a few weeks’ time. We haven’t cut silage in September in a number of years.

We don’t lock up paddocks. I always like to keep grazing and take out paddocks that are surplus. You can get caught out and have paddocks with good grass in the last week of September, first week of October ready to cut.

Then if we get a week of rain, it can get its fifth and six leaf growing and quality declines. I don’t like getting caught out like that early in the season, maybe I would be okay with that in November but not in October.

Maximising silage harvest

During springtime we normally try to make as much money as we can off grass. I normally cut the grain mix in the dairy down to 4 kilograms per cow and feed some straw to balance the diet and keep milk solids up.

This year we are looking to maximise our silage harvest. We will feed 6 or 7 kilograms of grain mix per cow and wear the cost to generate more surplus grass for fodder production as a priority.

I have also purchased some good quality oaten hay with enough to feed the cows 2 bales, or 2.5kg per cow per day, right through the spring until December.

We would normally feed straw or lower quality hay. With better quality cereal hay, it might grow me a couple more kilograms of grass. That way if it doesn’t rain, we should have made a bit more silage and if it keeps raining it is a win, win.

Victorian seasonal climate summary (winter 2024) and outlook (spring 2024) in brief

Source 1: BoM Long-range weather and climate

Source 2: Agriculture Victoria Fast Break

Source 3: River Murray weekly report

Source 4: Macalister Irrigation District weekly snapshot

In a nutshell

Total winter rainfall was at the 1961-1990 average nationally but below average by 30.2% (142.9mm) in Victoria.

  • Victoria’s winter rainfall was below average for the majority of the state and areas of the south-west, central and north-east received winter rainfall very much below average. Rainfall was generally average to above average for the eastern third of the state.
  • Strong cold fronts brought heavy rainfall and strong wind to Victoria throughout June, July and late August. A maximum wind gust of 154km/hr was recorded at Wilsons Promontory Lighthouse on 28 August.
  • Marlo (East Gippsland) recorded 365.2mm of rainfall during winter, its highest total winter rainfall on record.
  • Both Mallacoota (East Gippsland) and Edi Upper (North-east) recorded their highest winter daily rainfall on record in June.
  • Total area averaged rainfall for Victoria in June, July and August was 27.5%, 11.9% and 55.4% below the 1961-1990 average respectively.
  • River Murray System inflows for August, were in the lowest 4% of records.
  • Lake Glenmaggie inflows in August were 40% of normal.

Nationally, area-averaged mean temperature made this winter the second warmest since 1910 at 1.5°C above the long-term average (1961-1990).

Victoria’s area-averaged mean maximum temperature was 14.3°C and 1.3°C above the long-term average, making it the warmest winter on record (previously 2005). The area-averaged mean minimum temperature was 4.7°C and 0.7 °C above the long-term average.

  • Much of the state recorded very much above average mean maximum temperatures for winter. Areas of the north-west, south-west and parts of the north-east recorded their highest mean maximum temperatures on record.
  • Mean minimum temperatures varied, although they were generally warmer than average with exception of parts of the north-west that were below average, due to more frosts.

Most models predicted a warmer winter, which eventuated. Most models had a neutral forecast for winter rainfall (equal chances of wetter, average or drier) but a majority were predicting a drier south-west. The majority of the state turned out to be drier except central and East Gippsland which were average to wetter.

Despite many climate models predicting the formation of a La Niña this winter, the eastern Pacific Ocean has remained in a neutral state. While the SOI and slightly stronger trade winds in the western Pacific do show recent signs of moving in the right direction, the likelihood of a La Niña forming to help us through spring seems low. The BoM warns that significant global warming of oceans over the past 50 years may impact future ENSO events differently compared to the historic patterns.

  • Over in the Indian Ocean, higher pressure paired with less cloud and stronger southeast wind off Sumatra has been a drier pattern and is positive IOD like. Most climate models are predicting a neutral IOD for the remainder of the season.
  • An assessment of 12 climate models for Victoria predicts the next 3 months will be neutral (i.e. plan for anything) or wetter in terms of rainfall with an almost unanimous prediction of a warmer spring. Models have been predicting wetter for a number of months without this eventuating. On current form confidence is low in the wetter predictions.
  • During spring, look for a shift south in latitude and lower pressure in pressure patterns, lower pressure at Darwin, warmer water to our north or a positive SAM as indicators of wetter times ahead.  This looks to be one of those years where the key climate drivers are not providing the spring guidance that they sometimes do. Make decisions on known knowns, soil moisture, feed availability, fodder/grain/water reserves rather than hoping climate models come through with the goods.
Victorian dairying areas seasonal soil moisture condition assessment
2024 Winter review and spring update
Telemetry at Jack River soil moisture monitoring site guarded with stock protective fencing

Above: Telemetry at Jack River soil moisture monitoring site guarded with stock protective fencing

Richard Smith and Michele Jolliffe, Agriculture Victoria dairy extension officers

Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture probes on dryland sites greatly assist farmers with making early decisions related to crop and pasture management in the cropping, meat and wool grazing, and dairying industries.

Currently there are 30 probes installed on a range of soil and pasture types across Victoria in dryland sites. Three of the new sites are located on dairy farms in Bessibelle (south-west Victoria), Koorooman and Foster (south Gippsland).

The installed probes measure adjacent soil moisture at each of these 30 monitoring sites and are best described as capacitance types. They are 80 centimetres long with 8 internal sensors to provide soil water content values and temperature every 10 centimetres.

Sites are best assessed individually as the different soil types means they can not be directly compared to others. Also, these probes are useful in showing total soil moisture levels from estimated plant available water and relative movement/use of moisture down the profile.

A monthly analysis of all monitoring sites is produced by Agriculture Victoria as an enewsletter.

A live interactive Soil Moisture Monitoring Dashboard can be found here.

In this article, we feature the Koorooman, Foster and Terang site’s (marked with a tick) through a detailed update on the key recent soil moisture level observations from winter as well as relevant future insights for this spring.

Below - map image of front page of the soil moisture monitoring dashboard.

terange soil moisture map
TERANG PERMANENT PASTURE, SOUTHWEST SUMMARY

Entering winter, the Terang site was dry, sitting at 12%. Rainfall for the season was mixed with a total of 173mm, with the highest falls occurring in July with 90.8mm. Rainfall on the site was well below the long-term average for winter, with both June and August lower than average.

Due to the good rainfall in July, soil moisture slowly increased. As of the 31August, the site sat at 89% summed soil moisture, or saturated levels.

The spring outlook, according to the BoM for Terang is a high likelihood that maximum and minimum temperatures will be above median. The rainfall forecast indicates no strong signal, with rainfall likely to be within typical seasonal spring rainfall. The main risk is the forecasted of higher temperatures and average rainfall could result in rapid drawdown of soil moisture, potentially reducing total pasture growth.

Click here for current and overall, soil moisture data for the Terang site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

Below: Moisture Speedo for Terang probe (5 September 2024)

Moisture Speedo for Terang probe
KOOROOMAN PERMANENT PASTURE, WEST GIPPSLAND, SUMMARY

Koorooman was typical of those in West Gippsland, with the site entering winter with a soil moisture at 60%. Rainfall for the season was 183.8mm with the highest falls occuring in July with 113.4mm.

This July rainfall was above average for the site and for most of south east. Though July into August the site was above saturated, with rainfall below average for August combined with daytime temperatures the site entered spring sitting at 74%.

Entering winter pasture was still showing good growth. However, as temperatures decreased growth started to reduce. This combined with the rainfall observed in July saw limited water use. Higher daytime temperatures  in late July and August increased soil temperature  combined with freely available soil moisture, saw sites in region experiencing good growth.

For the 3 month outlook (September to November) at Koorooman the BOM is forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures above median with a likelihood above 85%. BOM rainfall forecast indicates no strong signal, with rainfall likely to be within typical seasonal spring rainfall.

Click here for current and overall, soil moisture data for the Koorooman pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

Below: Moisture Speedo for Koorooman permanent pasture probe (5 September 2024)

moisuture speedo for Koorooman
FOSTER PASTURE, SOUTH GIPPSLAND, SUMMARY

Entering winter, the Foster site was at 48% total moisture. Rainfall for the season was mixed with 162mm, and the highest falls occuring in July with 79.6mm. Rainfall on the site was well below the long-term average with both June and August well below. Soil moisture slowly increased over July. As of the 31 August the site total soil moisture was at 85%.

Entering winter pasture was still showing good growth.  However, as temperatures decreased, growth started to decrease. This combined with the rainfall observed in July saw limited water use. Higher daytime temperatures in late July and August increased soil temperature, combined with soil moisture, produced good growth in the region.

For the seasonal outlook for September to November at Foster, the BoM is forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures of above median with a likelihood above 85%. BoM rainfall forecast indicate no strong signal, with rainfall likely to be within typical seasonal spring rainfall. Pasture growth is currently being supported by soil moisture reserves and rainfall that is meeting plant water demands.

Season length is determined by rainfall that delays the depletion of the soil moisture and allows the longer production of pasture growth.

Click here for current and overall, soil moisture data for the Foster pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes.

Below: Moisture Speedo for Foster pasture probe (5 September 2024)

foster moisture pasture probe
Current relevant and useful climate links

Visit Agriculture Victoria’s The Break Newsletters’ page for regular and latest updates on oceanic and atmospheric climate driver activity, summaries of model predictions for rainfall and temperature forecasts in Victoria. While you are there you might like to subscribe to the monthly break e-newsletter if you are not already receiving it.

Below is a comprehensive list of useful website that cover a range of climate related information on past conditions, climate industry and driver maps, as well as educational products.

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My Climate View is a digital information product that provides Australian farmers with tailored insights into their changing climate to help inform decision-making and build their climate and drought resilience into the future.

Climate Analogues is a web application that displays three locations and their respective climates, each of which has a similar climate today as a location defined by what the user could have in the future.

 
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Past conditions

Recent and historical rainfall maps

124 years of Australian rainfall maps

Latest temperature maps

114 years of Australian temperature maps

Latest Victorian soil moisture map

Climate indices and driver maps

Latest Bureau of Meteorology climate driver update

Current operational sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly charts

Climate monitoring graphs

Latest Southern Annular Mode graph and 14-day forecasts

Up-to-date versions of mean sea level pressure and anomaly maps.

Educational products

The Fast Break - Victoria

Agriculture Victoria’s climate and weather courses

Agriculture Victoria’s ‘My Rain Gauge is Busted’ climate podcast

Local Climate Tool for analysing rainfall and climate driver years

Model accuracy of long–range forecasts

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Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.

To subscribe to the Milking the Weather e-newsletter, click here.

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