Last night saw the leaders of New Zealand’s two main political parties face off in their first live TV debate of the election campaign. One of them – National’s Christopher Luxon or Labour’s Chris Hipkins – will be the country’s next prime minister in under a month.

Both performed well enough, but right now the polls favour Luxon’s odds. In a conventional campaign dominated by the cost of living, promises of tax cuts and getting tougher on crime, National’s promise to “get our country back on track” is resonating just enough to give it the edge.

As Massey University’s Suze Wilson writes today, the challenge for Hipkins is to regain control of the political narrative, rise above the mere theatre of politics, and connect with voters’ real interests rather than their current (fairly grumpy) mood.

Leadership researchers call this the “management of meaning”. “Unless Hipkins discovers an effective way to do this,” Wilson writes, “he will struggle.”

But New Zealand’s mixed member proportional voting system can deliver surprises on the night, with coalition horse-trading almost guaranteed. At least one recent poll has pointed to the possibility of a hung parliament. So the stakes remain high – especially for Hipkins.

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