Volume 16, Issue 3: spring 2025

Welcome to the spring edition of Milking the Weather

Farmers successfully managing seasonal risk: case studies

Bec Cameron, Dairy Extension Officer, Agriculture Victoria

It’s been 6 months since our last update, and what a season it’s been. Across the state, farmers have faced everything from one of the driest autumns on record to sharp feed shortages and rising input costs - but also some welcome rain, improving prices, and signs of recovery. In this edition, we’re sharing real stories from dairy farmers who’ve tackled seasonal risk head-on. These case studies offer insights into the strategies, tough decisions, and on-the-ground adaptations that have helped them navigate another challenging year. Whether it's managing feed, adjusting calving, or trialling new pastures, their experiences highlight the resilience and innovation of Victoria’s dairy industry.

A season of unprecedented dry

This past year has tested us in ways I hadn’t fully anticipated. We’ve had some tough seasons before, but this one was right up there, possibly the second driest we’ve ever had. Normally, we expect about 850mm of rainfall, but this year we only got 460mm. We started feeding out silage as early as mid-November, which is the earliest we’ve ever had to. That extended the usual 150 days of feeding out to 230 days. Thankfully, we’d been consciously building up reserves over the past few years to make sure that we can cope with the dry season. This reserve really saved us. I was just concerned about where prices were going with regard to purchased fodder. We thought if we need to jump in the market, then we do not want to buy feed at the worst possible time. We decided to buy 120 tonnes of lentil hay just in case things got worse, but as it turned out, we didn’t need to use any of it. It’s still sitting in the shed. Even though the dry can be a bit frustrating, our biggest fear is prolonged wet conditions.

Sacrifice paddocks and the return of chicory

We had a plan for five sacrifice paddocks, and we only activated three, which we used through most of autumn to protect the resown pasture. The last of the silage probably only got fed two weeks before we started calving, and that was about the point where growth rates took off as well. The cows, especially the milkers in late lactation, basically lived in the sacrifice paddocks for nearly four months. We had 700 cows locked in on seven hectares, and they were happy and reasonably well fed.

We’ve since resown one paddock into grass and the others into chicory, which we’re returning to this season due to likely continued dry conditions. Chicory had been dropped in recent years but was noticeably missed. This year, we sowed eight hectares on-farm and another 20 Ha at the outblock for heifers, even planting earlier than ideal - normally mid-September, but since it was a sacrifice area, it made sense to go ahead. Currently, pasture cover is about 15% above target, with high residuals caused by a mismatch between growth and consumption, especially during early calving. The early calving period has complicated things, with fluctuating grazing pressure between dry cows and milkers. Now, the milkers have strong grazing capacity, but recent pasture growth has exceeded consumption for about three weeks. If the surplus continues, silage may be made early. For now, things are under control, and we’re looking forward to a good spring.

Resowing the whole farm

One of the biggest decisions we made was to resow the entire farm. The dry conditions made it clear by April that the pasture just wasn’t going to recover. We went ahead with drilling because we don't get eaten by bugs so much due to seed protection. It was effective enough, but in hindsight I think we would have had a lot more feed a lot earlier if we had used the power harrow. The power harrow creates a better seedbed, gives better germination, and gets feed away earlier. It does cost more and carries risk if the weather turns wet, which is why we were cautious. Still, the growth in the last six to eight weeks, once the moisture came, has been phenomenal. Once we got to a point where there was enough moisture, the grass began exploding out of the ground with the addition of Urea and Gibb acid.

Nutrition and production

Despite the tough conditions, the cows held up reasonably well. Production was only down slightly - about 5,000 kg of protein, and fat levels stayed consistent with the previous year. Animal health was solid, too. We stuck with selenium injections during pregnancy, and it seems to have made a difference. Calves have been almost completely trouble-free, only two needed any sort of treatment. Previous blood tests of the herd have shown a phosphorus deficiency, even though our soil levels are fine, it’s something we’ll need to monitor in the future.

A run of health issues

One of the more surprising things that happened was with our heifer calves. We had a run of facial eczema, followed by pneumonia, and then a major issue with bloat, about 80% of them were affected at one point. We were able to treat them successfully, but it did add to the stress levels for a while.  

Breeding trials with Friesian bulls

We’re trialling the use of young Friesian bulls on our heifers this year instead of Jerseys. It has been almost impossible to procure jersey bulls, and more expensive than we would like to spend. We think it's worth a shot and we're getting their DNA tested for calving size using ear notches. Apparently, they can predict calf size with about 90% accuracy, so we’ll see how that plays out.

Getting back on the tools and adapting

Labour has been another ongoing challenge. I’ve had to get back on the tools more than I’d planned. We lost a couple of staff who just didn’t work out, and finding reliable help isn’t easy, especially with the hours and the travel involved. There’s a person who looks promising, but with a long commute it might not be sustainable long term. It's hard to compete with other jobs when you're offering early mornings and weekend work.

All in all, it's been a full-on six months - dry weather, big decisions, and learning curves. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, it's that no matter how many seasons you've been through, you’re always adapting. You hedge your bets, learn from what didn’t go to plan, and make the best call you can with what you’ve got in front of you.

A promising start that didn’t last

We started with some promising rain, 26mm fell on March 21, which would normally mark the perfect autumn break. By April, most of the cattle had congregated near the dairy, partly because it was easy to feed them all there but also because most of our dams were dry. Pivot irrigation was minimal and was adequate to run 100 cows, nowhere near enough to cover the entire herd of 1,500. We had reduced our steer and beef numbers from the year before and had hoped the autumn would be kinder than 2024. Turned out it was much tougher and for every day that rolled by so did our feed reserve.

When rain finally came in May, 31mm on the 23^rd and another 13mm on the 26^th it was too cold for the grass to grow. The first rain turned dirt to mud, and thankfully the cows handled the conditions well, with no significant health issues. June’s long weekend brought a welcome 70 mm of rain, reviving dams and pastures. 

Feeding the herd through dry conditions

July was dry again, and we were spending about $9,000 a day on feed, the cows stayed healthy and productive. We feed about 8 kilos of grain per day/ cow, and this year we plan to maintain that through spring - a break from the usual management strategy of reducing grain to consume more grass. I’m glad we brought in palm kernel, feeding it in measured amounts every few days avoids losses and keeps the cows in good shape.

This year, we joined 200 heifers, 100 more than normal which was a challenge. Still, they were all in great condition: good, fat and healthy. We fed all our beef steers through winter, putting on quite a bit of weight, and it cost a fortune, but we managed.

Last year we stretched our fodder reserves and bought a lot of feed, a thousand tonnes of cereal hay plus plenty of silage. We ran out of pit silage for the first time in 15 years and had to buy extra. Thankfully, cattle prices nearly doubled, so the steers were worth $2,500 by mid-August, up from $1,400 in July, which helped offset some costs. The milk price rise on the 1^st of July was a relief.

Signs of recovery with cautious optimism

By late July and August, rain came again, around 65 to 70 millimetres, boosting grass growth and allowing us to send cattle back out onto pasture as we have a reasonable feed wedge. August 20 is the magic day when grass should grow faster than it can be consumed and we finally made it to there. This allowed us to have the milkers back on grass twice a day. And the other mobs of cattle were released from their muddy containment areas they had called home since March, where their paddocks went from dust to mud. This was very welcome as it had been a tough few months sourcing feed and also being able to pay for it.  Recently, we sold 70 steers which we had fed through and got them to over 650kgs, which helped manage numbers and feed requirements but also gave us some reward for the effort.

The last three weeks have been really pleasing and we’re in front of last year now with more moisture in the ground and runoff filling dams. Despite having fewer cows after selling some to our uncle and cousin, milk production is back on track. This is lining up to be our second-best year ever so far in production.

In terms of pasture management, we spread mostly urea fertiliser this spring, using phosphorus sparingly after soil tests. Unlike some farmers, we don’t lock up paddocks for silage too early. We prefer to graze and avoid wasting growth if it gets wet in spring- we think it’s better for pasture management and recovery.

Soil, pasture, and feed management

One of the best investments we’ve made over the last 10-15 years is in soil testing. We’ve spent a lot on fertiliser, but the tests showed we didn’t even need phosphorus this year or maybe for a couple of years. So, we only fertilised certain areas, saving money. Mostly, we spread urea whenever there’s rain, and potassium has been applied recently.

Before catching up with you, I checked the heifers’ paddocks, expecting they’d need fresh grass. But there was still enough for 4-5 days, even in cow paddocks. That means we might not need to move them as soon as I thought. And growth rates are better than we had hoped. 

We’ve oversown a few paddocks that have struggled through the tough years. We tried experimenting with some new mid-term grasses - at first, it looked good, but six weeks later, it didn’t perform well, even in one of our best paddocks. On the upside, we trialled a new ryegrass variety called Stampede before it hit the market. It’s exceeded expectations, and since it’s under the pivot, conditions have been decent for it to perform.

Our approach to spring

This year tested everything: our resilience, finances, and management skills. But with careful planning, some tough decisions, and a bit of good luck with rain and prices, we’re moving forward. The true constants have been family, community, and a hope that next season will be better. As spring approaches, we are hopeful and cautious, because in farming, that’s all you can do: prepare, adapt, and keep going.

Looking ahead, I’m hopeful but cautious. Hope isn’t a strategy, however, with better milk prices and secured hay supplies, we’re ready to face whatever the season throws at us.

Farm Drought Support Grants

The Victorian Government is providing practical support to farmers impacted by drought.

The Farm Drought Support Grants (formerly On-Farm Drought Infrastructure Grants) program is available to assist primary production businesses to implement on-farm infrastructure improvements and undertake essential business activities that improve drought.

Eligible farmers will receive up to $5,000 (ex-GST) as a co-contribution grant that will support activities including water infrastructure upgrades (such as pipes, tanks, troughs and dams), stock containment areas, and grain and fodder storage.

• Managing fatigue on the farm
• Safe livestock handling
• Supporting children’s mental health in rural areas
• Inclusive farming for people with disabilities
• Supporting staff with dyslexia.

Whether you’re a farmer, a family member, or a visitor, you can help build a culture of safety—one story at a time. 

Listen and subscribe to AgVic Talk on:

• Spotify
• Apple podcasts

Visit the Podcasts page on our website to hear more stories from Agriculture Victoria.

Visit Safety, health and wellbeing on farms to find out more about Agriculture Victoria’s work to support safety and wellbeing in Victoria’s agriculture industry.

Victorian seasonal climate winter summary and spring outlook in brief

Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria, Seasonal Risk Agronomist

Victoria's winter was characterised by near-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. The state's area-averaged rainfall total was 200.1 mm, approximately 2% below the 1961–1990 average. Rainfall was close to average for much of the state, below average for parts of the south-east, and above average for some regions in the east and west. 

The current climate outlook for Victoria is complex with a generally favourable scenario for spring, with several climate drivers showing promising signals. While the Pacific Ocean remains neutral with only weak signs of a La Niña developing, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to be in a negative phase, neither climate pattern is strongly established yet.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has recently been in positive phases, which can suppress rainfall in southern Victoria, but is expected to trend neutral to slightly positive. Sea surface temperatures remain warmer, especially in the western Pacific and in the central and eastern Indian Ocean, contributing moisture to our region. Pressure patterns returned to stronger and larger during August which was preventing connections to the better moisture sources. July’s pressure was lower, which brought above-average rainfall to many parts of Victoria, boosting soil moisture, although some areas like west Gippsland and the Bass Coast remain relatively dry.

Looking ahead to spring/summer (October–December), most models predict that rainfall is likely to be above average across Victoria, with daytime and overnight temperatures expected to be warmer than normal. Unless the -IOD starts to behave in a classic fashion and or the blocking pressure patterns move away the wetter forecasts is less certain. For dairy farmers, this suggests improved conditions for pasture growth in wetter areas, but ongoing challenges in drier regions. Risks include heat stress on cattle due to warmer nights, variable water availability, increased disease and pest pressure from moist and warm conditions, and potential weather unpredictability if climate drivers do not fully develop. Farmers are advised to remain flexible and vigilant, optimising water and feed management while preparing for both opportunity and variability in climatic conditions. 

Source 1: BoM Long-range weather and climate (www.bom.gov.au/climate)

Source 2: Agriculture Victoria Fast Break (agriculture.vic.gov.au\support-and-resources\newsletters\the-break)

The installed probes measure adjacent soil moisture at each of these 30 monitoring sites and are best described as capacitance types. They are 80 centimetres long with 8 internal sensors to provide soil water content values and temperature every 10 centimetres.

In this article, we feature the Bessiebelle site for the Southwest and Foster/Longwarry sites for Gippsland (marked with highlighter or ü) through a detailed update on the key recent soil moisture level observations from winter/spring.

Bessiebelle Pasture, Southwest Summary  

Entering spring, the Bessiebelle site was sitting at 96% plant available moisture after finally reaching field capacity on 28 July. Soil moisture reserves slowly improved from 8 June. For the 3-month outlook (September - November) at Bessiebelle the BoM is forecasting 63% chance of exceeding median rainfall. The forecast has impacts for the spring growth and early summer grazing opportunities, and delays supplementary feeding. Soil temperatures are improving and are currently 11 degrees at 10cm with pasture growth expected to improve as temperatures rise through spring.

For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Bessibelle site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit Bessibelle - Soil Moisture Monitoring | Soil Moisture Monitoring. 

Foster Pasture, West Gippsland Summary 

Entering spring, the Foster site was at 72% plant available soil moisture. Topsoil moisture is down to 60cm but deep soil moisture is yet to increase. Failing to fill the soil profile in winter is rare and reflects the below average rainfall decile during the past 3 months after only reaching 60% of the mean. BoM rainfall forecast for the 3 months is forecasting a 65% chance of exceeding above median rainfall. For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Foster pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit: Foster - Soil Moisture Monitoring | Soil Moisture Monitoring

Longwarry Pasture, West Gippsland, Summary 

Entering spring, the Longwarry site was at 45% plant available soil moisture. Moisture infiltration this winter has been poor and soil water improvements can only be observed to a depth of 50cm. No soil moisture sensor is indicating >75% which would be the optimum moisture content for pasture growth. Failing to fill the soil profile in winter is rare and reflects the below average rainfall decile during the past 3 months after only reaching 60% of the mean. Rainfall patterns will need to change to enable the season length to extend into late spring but achieving median rainfall will produce 85mm per month. BoM rainfall forecast for the 3 months is forecasting a 62% chance of exceeding above median rainfall. For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Longwarry pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit: Longwarry (chicory) - Soil Moisture Monitoring | Soil Moisture Monitoring 

Current relevant and useful climate links

Visit Agriculture Victoria’s The Break Newsletters’ page for regular and latest updates on oceanic and atmospheric climate driver activity, summaries of model predictions for rainfall and temperature forecasts in Victoria. While you are there you might like to subscribe to the monthly break e-newsletter if you are not already receiving it.

Below is a comprehensive list of useful websites that cover a range of climate related information on past conditions, climate industry and driver maps, as well as educational products.

My Climate View is a digital information product that provides Australian farmers with tailored insights into their changing climate to help inform decision-making and build their climate and drought resilience into the future.

Climate Analogues is a web application that displays three locations and their respective climates, each of which has a similar climate today as a location defined by what the user could have in the future.

Past conditions

• Recent and historical rainfall maps
• 124 years of Australian rainfall maps
• Latest temperature maps
• 114 years of Australian temperature maps
• Latest Victorian soil moisture map

Climate indices and driver maps

• Latest Bureau of Meteorology climate driver update
• Current operational sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly charts
• Climate monitoring graphs
• Latest Southern Annular Mode graph and 14-day forecasts
• Up-to-date versions of mean sea level pressure and anomaly maps.

Educational products

• The Fast Break - Victoria
• Agriculture Victoria’s climate and weather courses
• Agriculture Victoria’s ‘My Rain Gauge is Busted’ climate podcast
• Local Climate Tool for analysing rainfall and climate driver years
• Model accuracy of long–range forecasts

About Milking the Weather

The Milking the Weather newsletter provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry, 4 times per year (summer, autumn, winter and spring).

Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit author. To view a copy of this licence, visit creative commons.

Accessibility

If you would like to receive this publication in an alternative format please telephone the Customer Service Centre on 136 186, or via the National Relay Service on 133 677 www.relayservice.com.au.

Disclaimer

This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.

Get in touch

To provide feedback on the newsletter, request the latest edition in PDF format, or for assistance to subscribe/unsubscribe, please contact: Bec Cameron at bec.cameron@agriculture.vic.gov.au

If you know someone who you think would like to receive this weekly update, please forward this email to them so they can subscribe.

Privacy | Email: milking.theweather@agriculture.vic.gov.au