Few who follow Russian politics would have been surprised by the reported death of warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the infamous Wagner group, after his private jet crashed over Russia. But what is a surprise, writes Matthew Sussex, is that it has come a full two months after Prigozhin’s bizarre aborted coup attempt.

Even if it was an accident, says Sussex, no-one will believe it was anything other than revenge, and it will give those with ambitions in Russian politics pause. “Put simply,” Sussex writes, “Putin’s politics of terror has a self-destructive flaw: ruling through fear and deception inevitably prompts those who might be targets (which is essentially anyone) to eventually try to change the rules of the game”.

Ironically, perhaps the least significant impact of Prigozhin’s death will be on the war in Ukraine, given Wagner forces have already been withdrawn from combat and have not been deployed since the attempted coup.

It may be, Sussex concludes, that “in abortively mounting a challenge to Moscow’s established power structures, Prigozhin ultimately established a precedent for one that succeeds”.

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