ACROSS THE REGION

September 2020, climate change edition

Welcome to our first edition of Across the Region for 2020. Like everyone else, COVID-19 interrupted a lot of plans for council in the first half of this year and its roll-on effects will be felt for a while yet. As we went to print our region was also dealing with Alert Level 2, which caused further disruptions again.

For Horizons, COVID-19 saw our civil defence and emergency management role swing into fulltime action in response to the pandemic. Our emergency coordination centre was operational for 11 weeks and some of Horizons’ other core activities, such as our 2020-21 Annual Plan, were put on hold. While
our operations have essentially returned to normal at Alert Level 1 and 2, our emergency management team continue to operate in a monitoring and planning function. To keep up with our activity in this space we recommend following our Manawatū-Whanganui civil defence Facebook and Twitter accounts.

At Horizons we are very aware of the impact COVID-19 has had on our communities. Our 2020-21 Annual Plan reflected this with the initial Plan proposing an average rate increase of 5.95 per cent, and the final average rate increase being one per cent. This was to take into consideration any potential post-pandemic social and economic impact to the region.

In other news related to COVID-19, a lot of time and effort has gone into planning regional recovery and leveraging off opportunities. This includes the establishment of a taskforce to support the region’s economic recovery, completing an economic impact assessment report with territorial authorities and responding to central government’s call for shovel ready projects. Horizons has been fortunate to receive over $18 million for Jobs for Nature with the possibility of more to come, and over $26 million for climate resilience infrastructure projects in our river management area. More detail about all of these areas can be found on the Regional Recovery page on our website.

This edition of Across the Region addresses another challenge for our region – climate change. Horizons is in the early stages of its climate change journey and we are asking you, our communities, to be involved. I highly encourage you to read further and discover how you can share your views with us. Your feedback will be really helpful, especially as we start workshopping our 2021-31 Long-term Plan over the coming months.

Rachel Keedwell,

Chair

CLIMATE CHANGE IN OUR REGION

While we are uncertain about the pace and scale of change, we do know that a changing climate is likely to affect our environment, economy, and way of life. It will present challenges that must be addressed for our communities and environment to thrive.

In 2016, Horizons commissioned NIWA to use global and national climate models to investigate climate change scenarios for our region. This found that our region will experience more extreme events (e.g. storms, floods and droughts) as well as slower changes (e.g temperature is likely to increase by up to 3.1 degrees on average by 2090 across the region). Last year we developed this further by asking NIWA to look at potential impacts of climate change in the region, based on those scenarios.

An increase in the frequency and magnitude of rainfall and flooding events will likely have greater negative impacts on communities, homes, infrastructure and buildings. The ongoing effects of sea-level rise may become more pronounced exposing communities, land and infrastructure to coastal erosion and flooding.

Climate change is likely to lead to increase costs and pressures in most sectors. For example, higher summer temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are expected to increase frequency of drought, which will likely increase costs for water management, feed preparation and pest control in the agriculture sector. For the domestic sector it could put extra pressure on town water supplies. A changing climate may also, in the long-term, alter land use suitability. However, changing weather patterns, including a warmer climate and fewer frost days, may provide new opportunities for horticulture or cropping in some areas of the region. So, if this is possibly our future, what is Horizons doing to address these challenges? Keep reading to learn more.                                                 

OUR RESPONSE TO DATE

Here at Horizons we have identified that responding to the changing climate is a significant priority as a Council, with our 2018-28 Long-term Plan including specific investment in the science activity for climate change research. At the same time, our 30-year Infrastructure Strategy also acknowledged that climate change was going to be an issue for the likes of flood protection assets due to more frequent floods and the buildup of sediment in waterways – and noted that consideration would need to be given to addressing this.

A number of our current workstreams align with climate change adaptation as well. For example, to prevent erosion in our hill country Horizons has been investing in soil erosion activities such as the Sustainable Land Use Initiative (SLUI) to promote resilient land management practices for a number of years and modelling its impact. Building resilience to storm events is a key driver for the programme, however climate change is likely to provide further challenges. This is reflected in the findings by Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research that indicated more frequent and severe storm events could reduce the benefits of SLUI – the programme was initially projected to reduce sediment in waterways by 27 per cent by 2043, however climate change is likely to reduce this to only a 5-19 per cent improvement. As such we know more is required to integrate climate change considerations more actively into our planning decisions and programmes.

More recently, alongside the seven city and district councils in our region, we have committed to a collaborative work programme to address local issues in the face of climate change. As part of this commitment, regional chiefs
(mayors and our chair) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding and propose to undertake a range of work to build knowledge and understanding of the effects of climate change, and to build resilience across the region.

Current work in development includes a Regional Greenhouse Gas Inventory, a Regional Climate Change Risk Assessment and a Regional Climate Change Action Plan. As part of the risk assessment we are engaging with the community to get an understanding of their values and welcome everyone’s input – more detail on this below.

REGIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY PROJECT SUMMARY

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases trap heat in the earth’s atmosphere; they are vital to support life on earth. However, human activities over the last 150 years have released excess amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, trapping too much heat. The release of these gases is the major cause of climate change.

Horizons has commissioned the region’s first greenhouse inventory to cover the 2018-19 year. This report will be used alongside a StatsNZ inventory released in July 2020 to determine the current state and sources of emissions in our region. While these reports use different methodologies and provide different insights, both offer key findings. The regional report uses more direct sources of data whereas the StatsNZ inventory uses a top down approach. This means that the regional inventory is useful when considering overall contributions by sector and total emissions, and the StatsNZ inventory provides a useful comparison to other regions as well as trends since 2007.

SO, WHAT ARE OUR EMISSIONS LIKE?

The two largest sources of greenhouse gases in our region which are generated from human activities are agriculture and transport. Stationary energy (e.g. household and business power use), waste, industrial processing and product use make up the smaller proportions of our emissions. While StatsNZ reports that our agricultural emissions have decreased by 7 per cent between 2007
and 2018, both studies report that agriculture is the largest emitter in our region overall.

Our region contributes 7.5 per cent to the country’s greenhouse emissions total, the fourth highest in New Zealand after Waikato, Canterbury and Auckland. However, with a relatively small population and large land area representing 8 per cent of New Zealand’s total area, we are about average both in per capita emissions and contribution by size when compared to other regions. We are slightly above average when it comes to a reduction in total emissions. StatsNZ reports that between 2007 and 2018 our region’s total emissions decreased by 2 per cent compared to the national average reduction of 1.2 per cent. These reports provide some useful benchmarking information which will contribute to the future Regional Climate Change Action Plan.

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE 

We are keen to get your thoughts on what community values you consider to be at risk due to climate change in the region via a platform called Social Pinpoint, open for your feedback, until 4 October.

Community values are the ‘things and objects’ of value that could be affected by climate change at any location in the region that you have a connection to, regardless of where you live, work or play. These ‘things and objects’ could be either physical objects e.g. buildings, roads, native species or less tangible things e.g. community cohesion and cultural practices. The information gathered on Social Pinpoint will help us develop a regional risk assessment. The assessment itself will identify priorities in adapting to the impacts of climate change in our region, as well as help inform future policies and action plans. This project is being led by Horizons in collaboration with the seven city and district councils within the region.

HOW YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE

Climate change risk is not limited to extreme events. More gradual changes can also affect the exposure of human and natural systems to hazards – and some things are more vulnerable to harm than others.

We would like you to consider hazards (e.g. floods, droughts and storms) and potential consequences in terms of community values and wellbeing to help us determine what is at risk. The Social Pinpoint platform shows an interactive map of the region and gives users the opportunity to drop markers to identify what they care about, as well as interact with others who have also identified areas of concern. There is also a survey to fill out if you would like to further express your views.

If you don’t have the ability to contribute to the climate change conversation on Social Pinpoint, you can also email your thoughts to climatechange@horizons.govt.nz or send them to Freepost 217922, Private Bag 11025, Manawatu Mail Centre, Palmerston North 4414, before 4 October.

Responding to climate change will take time and this community engagement is one of many steps on our region’s climate change journey. The risk assessment, and your contribution to it, will help focus our efforts and inform work that will extend over years to come. The information you contribute will be used alongside scientific reports and data, mātauranga Māori and expert knowledge. We have also begun conversations with iwi representatives, as their values and local knowledge will be important considerations.          

UPCOMING COUNCIL MEETINGS

SEPTEMBER
• Regional Council, 22 September, 10am
• Audit, Risk and Investment Committee, 22 September, to follow Regional Council

OCTOBER
• Strategy and Policy Committee, 13 October, 10am
• Passenger Transport Committee, 20 October, 10am
• Regional Council, 28 October, 10am

In addition to scheduled committee meetings, Council will be workshopping the upcoming 2021-31 Long-term Plan. Unless otherwise stated meetings are open to the public and will be held at Regional House, 11-15 Victoria Avenue, Palmerston North. Please note all details were correct at time of sending. However, for the most up-to-date dates and times for council meetings please check www.horizons.govt.nz.