Volume 16, Issue 2: Winter 2025      

Welcome to the winter edition of Milking the Weather

Farmers successfully managing seasonal risk: case studies

Bec Cameron, Dairy Extension Officer, Agriculture Victoria

As we farewell the warmer-than-usual autumn and welcome the crisp chill of winter mornings, we catch up with three farmers from across the state who are successfully navigating seasonal risk. Six months since our last update, they return to share how summer and autumn played out- what went to plan, what didn’t, and how they’re preparing for the months ahead.

A few challenges in summer

Whilst we had an excellent spring with good quality pasture, leading to an increased milk production, we hit a brick wall in late November. This was because of a spell of hot weather and some rain (approximately 40mm). This had a two-fold effect; the hot and humid weather affected the cows even though we have plenty of shade and it also affected the quality of the pasture.

The clover and ryegrass all but disappeared and couch grass had become very dominant before the paspalum took over. We have since sprayed out the worst section, about 30 acres and have sown it down to an annual ryegrass with shaftal. This area will be sown down to millet next summer.

Another major challenge was with our December calving cows. As mentioned in the last Milking the Weather they were grazing vetch regrowth during the dry period, and they were looking magnificent. The problems started when we moved them to a new section where the vetch was more advanced. We have since found out that this was at a toxic stage of growth and created lupinosis like symptoms that affects the liver, which causes diarrhoea, photosensation and can lead to death. Out of the 45 cows, we lost 3 and 10 aborted, the rest at this stage seem to be ok but never peaked with their milk production. There could still be some sub-clinical effects and we will be interested to see what our pregnancy test results are like which we will be doing later this month.

Another issue that has been ongoing, was with our disc mill, it would keep tripping out and nobody could really tell us why. The electricians couldn’t find anything wrong, and the manufacturer said everything was ok. In the end we changed from whole grain and adding a protein mix, to using a fully prepared mix and bypassing the mill. This has also fixed some other issues that we were dealing with, one being late lactation milk fever. We had a spate of fever over a few weeks and once we changed, we haven’t had any. Whilst our milk production in the early season was great our fat was low (around 3.2%) since then it has increased to between 4.3 to 4.5%, so our overall solids have increased.

Constant irrigation

Due to the dry conditions, we started irrigating as soon as the season opened (15 August). This was a constant throughout spring, summer and into autumn, with very few rain breaks. We used a record amount of water this year, just under 1,400 megalitres. The price of water we purchased (850 ML) was about $105/ML. As we have mentioned in previous Milking the Weather reports, this is our biggest risk moving forward. This last season we started with Lake Eildon at near full capacity and with a lot of carry over in the system. This coming season, Eildon is sitting at approximately 60% and with a lot less carryover system wide. This means that if we do not have an excellent spring, the price of water could easily double or even triple.

Autumn calving cows

Compared to our summer calving, this went relatively smoothly with only the usual list of issues, a few cases of milk fever and the occasional difficult birth. Out of the 120 cows that calved we only lost 2 calves which were stillborn. These cows and the rest of the herd are milking well. They are grazing autumn irrigated pastures (130 Ha) which were all over sown with shaftal and rye.

Feed budget

We are very conscious of our feed reserves, seeing what is happening to our fellow farmers south of us, keeps us very focused. We had planned to sell about 50 head of the beef herd in the autumn. This consisted of 30 in calf heifers and cows, and 20 15-month-old heifers and steers. We sold 8 of the heavier (320 Kg) younger cattle, but they didn’t sell as well as we had hoped. So, we have made the decision based on the fact that we believe we have enough feed on hand to get them through to spring and on the point of calving in hopes they will be worth more. We have also made the decision that we will be getting out of beef entirely (we calved down 40 heifers in calf to Speckle Park and didn’t keep any). We have based this decision on the fact that dairy is our core business, and we have now got our herd size to where we are comfortable. We also need to conserve as much feed as we can and try to create a reserve each year. Another decision we have made is that we have gone back to using convectional semen. We had used sexed semen for many years to help boost numbers, but we now find ourselves with excess heifers, we have 200 under 2 years of age. Other factors are costs; the cost of semen, rearing replacements and extra time feeding, drenching and other maintenance tasks. We are basically trying to simplify our system and be a bit more conservative and not run everything and everyone into the ground. Mental and physical health is very important to us.

The lease block

This year we have sown a mix of oats, wheat and vetch (total area 120 Ha). Now we have sown about 80% as it has been a very dry autumn. We had rain of approximately 15 millimetres ANZAC day weekend and nothing since. As we write this now first week in June, we have had another 25 millimetres of rain which is terrific and a great relief.

The new block

This has worked in very well, we did a lot of work last autumn putting in new fences, repositioning gates and a new water line. It now runs very smoothly with the rest of the farm. There is still more to do but we aren’t under the same pressure. All our young stock run on this section and because we have the old dairy facilities for drenching, there is no interaction with the rest of the herd. We did have to fit a new crush and repair the holding yards, as with the rest of the farm, it was pretty run down.

The new season

We are now looking forward to the new season. Milk prices are being announced, we are hoping for at least $9/kg butter fat as a starting point. The last season was definitely challenging with the lower milk prices, herd health costs and extra costs associated with the new block.

Feeding earlier than before

This summer, we began feeding silage earlier than usual, starting on December 6 instead of after Christmas, to 330 cows and as the season turned out it was 30 cows more than we needed. We made calls early. As a result, we’ve had to unload 50 cows in the past few months, making herd management decisions based on feed and water availability. Feed supplies are critically low across the region. We have 100 silage bales remaining, some hay purchased before Christmas, and additional straw bought recently at $150/tonne to stretch out our supplies of dry cow feed. The usual autumn break that would normally support pasture growth didn’t occur, limiting pasture despite good soil nutrients available. We have never fed double digits in the dairy but feeding 10 kilograms of feed per cow daily has become necessary and is our current reality.

Pasture and water management

We have oversown about 300 acres out of the 580-acre farm, replacing some Italian ryegrass with perennials to improve pasture longevity, especially on the new block. Despite dry conditions, 85% of the grass sown late March has survived, which was positive given the frosts and lack of rain. Soil moisture is extremely low, making work like fence post installation difficult. We were trying to drive in some fence posts the other day, and you were snapping more than you were succeeding, so we’ve shelved that job until the ground softens. The new block is now part of the milking platform but has been shut off for the last six weeks to preserve pasture. Fertiliser applications have been made cautiously, we put on 60 kg of urea/Ha recently, with the aim to build up cover before grazing, to reduce reliance on supplementary feeding.

We took the opportunity to clean out two large dams with a grant that helped cover some of the costs of excavation. Since our farm is 100% runoff-dependent for water, having dam capacity is crucial, especially given the tight water situation.  

Calving during the dry

Calving, running from ANAZC Day to the end of July, has been mud-free, one of the few positives in a tough dry season. We decided not to carry through the usual 50 empty cows this year, this has meant we are essentially running a 100% fresh herd. Currently, around 100–110 cows remain to calve out of 330, which we may reduce to 300 if dry conditions persist. The aim now is to manage the farm cautiously until August 20, when things change, days get longer, and days get warmer. You start to see spring growth. But rule of thumb seems to be out the window currently.

Dry cows are now run through the dairy daily to be supplementary fed 3kgs of grain; on top of their mainly straw diet. To manage this, they’ve been locked in a nearby paddock.  The milkers come through in the morning, and then the dry cows go through straight after that and get a couple of kilos of grain, because it's become cost effective to feed them grain rather than buy more fibre. We were noticing that the dry cows were losing a little bit of condition, so this became a necessary evil, unfortunately.

Young stock

Young stock are being closely monitored, with our AI programs scheduled to begin mid-July. Energy deficits in young stock would be a significant setback, especially if cold, wet conditions arrive, which would increase maintenance energy needs. Herd numbers will be maintained at a minimum of 280–300 cows; we will be balancing the reduction in numbers with the need to be in a good position so we can recover as quickly as we can.

Environmental conditions and outlook

The season has been marked by unusual weather patterns: frosts and a very late and weak autumn break with delayed pasture growth. North winds further reduced the moisture in the new grass, exacerbating the already very dry conditions. We are now tightly managing grazing by restricting cows to four paddocks to allow pasture recovery and reduce mastitis risk. Our future season hinges on well-timed rainfall and adequate runoff, which has been poor for the past 18 months. The goal is to “tighten down” operations and manage resources carefully to weather what could be another dry season. Water availability remains the greatest risk going forward, so careful monitoring and avoiding importing water is a high priority for us. It's all timing from now on. We just need rain at the right time to ensure we get a spring harvest. We've had 18 months of terrible run off so need it to be decent this winter to replenish dam levels. We need to just keep finding a way through until the season breaks.

Our first maize crop

We planted our first-ever maize crop on December 18 on our newly acquired outblock, totalling 105 hectares with 2 centre pivot irrigators and coming with 340 megalitres of high reliability water in the MID, taking advantage of excellent water availability. While there was still plenty of feed and water at the time, the planned early dry-off of the milking platform and subsequent high silage use over summer drove the decision to grow maize as an autumn buffer. One pivot was used under the maize crop, which performed very well, while another pivot supported pasture that was cut and carried back to feed young stock. The dryland areas gave out by Christmas, but the irrigated system provided a solid feed reserve.

With professional guidance from agronomists and close monitoring, the maize crop exceeded expectations. We harvested around 460 dry tonnes (22 tonnes per hectare)- an incredible result for our first crop. The addition of a moisture probe helped us irrigate accurately and avoid guesswork, proving that a small investment in technology can yield a good result. We were quite happy for the agronomist to come in and guide us on what to do. Now maize is firmly on our radar as a long-term feed strategy.

Autumn kicked off strongly after receiving timely rain in February and March. Drilling and irrigation resumed late February, and pasture growth responded impressively, with pasture recovery supporting a smooth transition into winter.

Water wins

Irrigation was seamless thanks to the water ordering app. We were able to plan ahead and schedule water in 4–5 day intervals, which gave us flexibility during hot spells and improved reliability. It was a huge shift from the rostered systems we’re used to on the Avon River system, and we’ll continue using this approach to stay ahead of seasonal challenges.

Pasture and feed position

Our pasture silage is nearly gone, and we’re now feeding out the maize silage. Despite a few tight patches, we’ve maintained a strong feed reserve, and the oversown pastures are looking excellent. We normally try and stop feeding silage mid August. We are aiming to feed for the next 60 days and this should set us up for a strong start in spring.

Thanks to careful planning and solid rainfall in February and March, autumn feed recovery was outstanding. In fact, we feel more comfortable now than we did mid-summer.

Progress on the outblock

We took possession of the new outblock in January- bare bones and all, and we’ve been full steam ahead since. The site had no fencing or infrastructure, so we’ve spent summer setting up the new block from scratch, installing laneways, paddocks, water systems, and yards exactly how we want them.

The block is now supporting two mobs of young stock and will house our dry cows over winter. It’s already proving to be a vital part of our system, with cut-and-carry feed coming back to the home farm. One pivot is reserved for grazing, while the other may host another maize crop next season. We see this block as a long-term asset, and development will continue over the next 6–12 months.

Lease block

Works continued on the new lease block adjoining the main farm. Fences and troughs were put in and laneways created to extend the milking platform. This was completed around Christmas and was planted to millet which was grazed by young stock over the summer. This was then oversown to Italians in the autumn and was brought into the milking platform in the last month. This is the first time that milking cows have been on this property since the 1960s.

Healthy calves and new infrastructure

Calving went off without a hitch, we had ideal conditions, no mud, and a strong group of healthy calves. One major upgrade this season was the installation of temperature-controlled fans in the calf shed. These have made a huge difference during hot autumn days, helping calves stay cool and reducing stress. With flies really bad the fans have been a real win. We’re just finishing weaning the final group now, with no major issues to report.

Seasonal challenges

Despite a good overall season, it wasn’t always easy. Humidity and temperature swings made it difficult for cows to settle, and production required extra effort. Even into April, bunching and heat stress persisted, and milk gains were hard-won. We weren’t alone, these conditions hit many across the region.

Looking ahead

Completing the infrastructure upgrades at the outblock will be one focus for winter. The cows are in solid condition now and maintaining that condition over winter will be another focus. Coming into spring calving, the oversown pastures are in good shape as the moisture profile is spot on, this makes us feel as prepared as we can be.

We’re maintaining a high stocking rate, but feel confident thanks to good feed planning, the new block, and healthy cow condition. The goal is to hit the ground running in spring with cows calved and ready as the grass comes in, not weeks after.

Herd replacements

Our herd is set to grow from 550 to 700 this spring, thanks to strong young stock retention and the capacity created by the outblock. While cash has been tight at times, we’ve chosen to invest in growth. We see long-term gains from keeping replacements rather than selling early.

The last six months have been full-on; with night work, fence building, and cut-and-carry operations taking their toll- but we’re now seeing the reward: cows on grass, feed in the stack, and a system that feels more sustainable than ever.

Winter and a fast start to spring

We’ve got trees on order- ready to add shelter to the new block and create a more comfortable environment for animals. While there’s still work to do, the worst of the heavy lifting is behind us.

As always, we’re keeping a positive outlook. We’ll continue thinking ahead, pulling the right levers at the right time, and backing good decisions with hard work. Here’s to a settled winter and a fast start to spring.

Victorian seasonal climate summary (autumn 2025) 

Dale Grey, Agriculture Victoria, Seasonal Risk Agronomist

The 2024–25 dairy season in Victoria was marked by severe climatic stress across key regions; Gippsland, Northern Victoria, and Western Victoria. Persistent dry conditions and above-average temperatures placed significant pressure on water availability, pasture growth, and overall farm productivity.

Rainfall levels were among the lowest on record. Warrnambool experienced its driest 24 months, and towns like Horsham received only 33.5 mm from January to April 2025. As a result, statewide water storages declined by 34 million megalitres, a 25% decrease, raising concerns about potential water restrictions. Annual rainfall in 2024 ranked in the lowest 10% of years since 1900.

Dominant high-pressure systems, leading to stable cloud and rain free weather have been keeping daytime temperatures warmer. Forecasts indicate continued above-average warmth from June to August 2025. When the season finally gets away, grass growth might hopefully be better than normal.

The Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral ENSO phase, and while the Indian Ocean and the Coral Sea are warmer than average, significant rainfall shifts are not expected in the medium term. The BoM June–August 2025 outlook points to continued warm conditions with neutral rainfall expectations (code for plan for all eventualities). Many models predict wetter conditions for spring based on a negative Indian Ocean Dipole forming, but this hasn’t started to form yet, and predictions this far out, and at this time of the year, are often wrong.

With no strong signals of wetter weather ahead, the outlook for the 2025–26 season remains uncertain. Farmers are urged to closely monitor seasonal updates and apply adaptive strategies such as feed budgeting, water planning, and livestock management to navigate ongoing climatic challenges. For more climate updates visit the website below. 

Source 1: BoM Long-range weather and climate (www.bom.gov.au/climate). Source 2: Agriculture Victoria Fast Break

Bessiebelle Permanent pasture, south west summary  

Entering autumn, the Bessiebelle site was sitting at 11% plant available moisture and this percentage has not changed over the past 3 months (in fact it has been at that level for the past 5 months!). All of the shallow moisture had been depleted in the early stages of summer, and the pasture has been in survival mode since. Small rain events have been absorbed in the organic matter layer of the topsoil and have never been greater than the moisture deficit in the soil created from the warm conditions. 20mm of rain on May 27 still didn’t penetrate down to the first moisture sensor at 10cm, although it will have initiated pasture growth response so further follow up rain is desperately required.

For the 3 month outlook (June - August) at Bessiebelle the BoM is forecasting 49% chance of exceeding median rainfall. Soil moisture is largely still exhausted and not available for plant growth until further rain falls. The forecast has impacts for the winter recharge period and set up for spring growth. Water availability will continue to be an issue until the soil reaches saturation. Farmers are encouraged to use online tools to understand farm dam capacity, available volumes and forecast water for the stock number on farm.

Koorooman pasture, west Gippsland summary 

Entering autumn, the Koorooman site was at 7% plant available soil moisture. Apart from a small increase in mid-March, soil moisture has remained below 10% and is currently 8%. This time last season it was 60%.   

The monitoring site is on well drained red country, and the permanent pasture was efficient in accessing soil moisture from down at 80cm and beyond during summer and during autumn there has been limited rain to generate any plant growth. The opportunity to start to rebuild this moisture bank is highly reliant on winter rain and will only occur where rainfall exceeds plant water requirements.

BoM rainfall forecast for the 3 months is forecasting a 48% chance of exceeding above median rainfall. For current and overall, soil moisture data for the Koorooman pasture site in Agriculture Victoria’s network of soil moisture monitoring probes, visit the website below.

Expanded drought support package: Assistance for farmers and communities 

The Victorian Government has announced a new and expanded Drought Package – with an additional $37.7 million in funding.

Eligible farmers across the state will be able to access grants of up to $5,000 to support on-farm drought management.

For eligible farmers in the south west, the grant has been increased to up to $10,000.

The Premier has also established a Drought Response Taskforce.

More details are available at www.agriculture.vic.gov.au/dryseasons

Farmers can lodge an Expression of Interest for the grants by emailing Rural Finance at: admin@ruralfinance.com.au

About Milking the Weather

The Milking the Weather newsletter provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry, 4 times per year (summer, autumn, winter and spring).

Information includes regional round ups for the previous season, seasonal climate outlook summaries, strategies on managing the season ahead and case studies on farmers managing climate risk successfully on their farms.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit author. To view a copy of this licence, visit creative commons.

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This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.

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