COVID-19 Media Briefing
Feb. 22, 2021

Briefing Notes

Highlights

Six variant cases in Niagara have been identified in screening, but are still waiting to be confirmed. These cases seem to be connected in some way to cases in the GTA, and not linked to community spread in Niagara.

Niagara’s reproduction number is currently at 0.8 and has been between 0.6 and 0.8 for a while. We need to keep it there to prevent a third wave and a rise in variants. The two Section 22 Orders issued last week will hopefully help to keep the number down.

Variants

There are four variants of particular relevance to us; three of which are newer:

• D614G has been around for a while and is the dominant version of the virus in North America and Western Europe
   
• B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (South Africa), and P.1 (Brazil) are the three newer variants

The three new variants are more transmissible and spread more easily, so measures that control the spread of COVID-19 are not enough to stop the spread of the new variants.

New modeling from the Health Agency of Canada has shown what it could look like if the variants continue to spread in Canada

In the U.K., where the variants spread through the fall, they saw a spike in their cases in late December causing a third wave, similar to the Netherlands and Spain, as well as in Ireland, which saw the sharpest spike. That is what we want to avoid seeing in Canada and in Ontario.

There's a new screening test that screens all COVID-19 positive results for the variants. It's then a two-week process to get a confirmed result. In Ontario, we currently have a lot of positive screens, compared to confirmed cases.

The Province took all tests for one day (Jan. 20) and tested for the variant. They are now routinely testing all positive tests with the screening test.

• On Jan. 20, around 4.4 per cent of all positive tests were variants, now that number is around 10.5 per cent
   
• Regular cases are currently declining, but at some point, they will be overtaken by variant cases that are rising. That will eventually lead to an overall rise in cases.
   

• As the variants start to become dominant and rise, we will likely also see ICU admissions rise

Trends

Newfoundland

• Seeing sharp spike due to variant
• Brought the first wave under control in the spring and did not have a fall/winter second wave, but now seeing the variants rising rapidly
• In the last 10 days, they have had more cases than they had in the past year

Ontario

• Seeing cases come under control and drop
• Starting to see cumulative cases flatten out
• Last few days, the number of average daily cases has flattened out
• Cases are still higher than the first wave and the reopening after that

GTA

• York’s variant cases are rising, and we’re not seeing evidence of it flattening out
• Likewise with Toronto and Peel, not seeing variant spread flatten out
• These were all regions that were in stay at home order until today, showing that the variants are still able to spread easily despite stay at home lockdown measures

Variants in Niagara

Six variant cases in Niagara have been identified in screening, but are still waiting to be confirmed. These cases seem to be connected in some way to cases in the GTA, and not linked to community spread in Niagara.

Niagara’s reproduction number is currently at 0.8 and has been between 0.6 and 0.8 for a while. We need to keep it there to prevent a third wave and a rise in variants. The two Section 22 Orders issued last week will hopefully help to keep the number down.

The risk is that we’ll see those variant cases spread and rise in Niagara. The first line of defence is to identify them and make sure further spread is contained.

To get variants under control we need the reproduction number to be at 0.7. Niagara’s reproduction number is currently at 0.8 but has been between 0.6 and 0.8 for a while. We need to keep it there, but as we lift measures we risk it rising. We need to keep an eye on the number correct if it goes up.

Section 22 Orders

The two Section 22 Orders issued last week will hopefully help to keep the reproduction number down as well.

Dining and restaurant measures are similar to those issued last fall. The new shopping and retail measures put more onus on the stores to monitor and ensure physical distancing in their premises.

Hamilton put in similar measures in December, Halton have followed, and now so have we.

Vaccinations

1. Phase One started in December provincially. In Phase One, Niagara Region Public Health has focused on long-term care and high-risk retirement home residents. We’ve done first dose for these residents, and are finishing the second dose today for the high-risk retirement home residents.
    
2. Phase Two will tentatively start in April provincially, although perhaps later for Niagara as we started a little later

In the fall the vaccine will be available to everyone who wants to get it.

Niagara Health is working on health care workers, including long-term care and retirement home staff.

Public Health's next priority is seniors-focused congregate settings. We're also working with our Indigenous and chronic home care partners to plan how best to reach those populations, and then we’ll be looking at adults over 80.

This sequence depends on the supply and distribution of vaccine. The sooner large quantities of vaccine are available, the faster we’ll get these priority groups vaccinated. The faster we can get people vaccinated, the more protection we’ll have against the variants.