13 NOVEMBER 2025

Welcome to our news round-up. See previous issues here.

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A brief newsletter this time, as we prepare for the imminent release of two major reports.

As the key bidder for the in-administration Whyalla Steelworks, Bluescope Steel, approaches its AGM next week, our new report details how the gas-led ‘recovery’ of the Steelworks that BlueScope is spruiking would be a grave and costly strategic misstep that would slug taxpayers billions in gas subsidies and cruel Australia’s green iron and steel ambitions – the opportunity of the century. South Australia has world-leading magnetite resources and variable renewable energy penetration. Why would it put these two key strengths aside to double down on expensive high-emissions interstate-sourced methane gas?

We also update our China outbound direct investment report revealing that its multibillion-dollar global green capital tide of cleantech investment across the globe is driving decarbonisation in advanced and emerging economies alike. CEF has tracked over US$175bn of cleantech transactions since the start of 2023, and note this is up from US$100bn a year ago when we released our first report on this then just-emerging topic. This global leadership momentum of China’s cleantech outbound investment has built substantially, accelerating even as the US reverses gear and doubles down on fossil fuels. 

Australia is still largely an exception. We continue to fail both to embrace green energy statecraft and to strategically co-invest with the world’s clean energy leader: Chinese ODI into Australia languishes at historic lows at a critical juncture in the energy transformation. As we argue in our new report, this is consequential, putting at risk our industrial decarbonisation and net zero goals.

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SOLAR SHARER A WINNER FOR AUSTRALIANS

Thanks to Solar Sharer – Energy Minister Chris Bowen’s excellent new initiative – from July 2026 many many more consumers will benefit from free solar power for 3 hours a day, at zero cost to the market. This will massively incentivise demand load shifting to the middle of the day, e.g. air conditioning, washing machines and pool pumps, thereby creating demand for all the new rooftop solar systems now being incentivised by the outstandingly successful federal Cheaper Home Batteries subsidy. A strong virtuous loop that should dramatically boost solar’s social licence to operate. 

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) 3Q2025 Quarterly Energy Dynamics report highlighted that national electricity market (NEM) electricity prices were negative 19% of the quarter, providing plenty of free electricity to support Solar Sharer without any cost to the GenRetailers, notwithstanding their bleating. Great to see wholesale spot prices averaged $87/MWh across all NEM regions in 3Q2025,  down 27% vs 3Q2024. Brilliant movement in the right direction. And this is building strong, with October 2025 seeing a record 49.9% renewable energy share across the NEM, again driving wholesale electricity prices lower.

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TOMAGO BRINKSMANSHIP BY RIO TINTO AND NSW PREMIER MINNS

Rio Tinto has announced the potential closure of its Tomago aluminium smelter and the loss of 1,000 direct jobs when its current subsidised coal-fired electricity contract runs out at the end of 2028. This time it looks like Rio Tinto is looking to a permanent solution that puts it on a path to zero emissions cost competitive long term electricity supply, but with time lost and capital cost increases in wind power, a financially viable solution will require a seriously impressive public-private collaboration – a massive test of the Future Made in Australia framing of the Albanese government. 

If only Rio Tinto had invested in its in-house developed “EnPot” demand modulation technology at some point in the last two decades, then Tomago wouldn't now need a bailout. It could take ultra-low cost behind the meter solar electricity, in full knowledge the sun sets predictably most evenings, average this out with now relatively expensive onshore wind electricity, leverage very scalable battery energy storage systems and then lobby the government to join the EU and China in advocating for an Asian Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to extend and leverage the EU CBAM, thereby deriving the immense financial benefit of being a green aluminium export leader. 

After extensive research and a field trip to TRIMET Aluminium in Germany, Simon Holmes à Court offered this advice to Rio back in 2019.  Tomago should be on a clear, well prepared path to zero-emissions green electricity production and a strong economic profile as a world leader in the zero-emissions industries of the future.

Rio Tinto has used brinksmanship before. Think Tiwai Point in Southland, NZ. Rio announced in 2021 to the market and its 1000 staff that it would close by 2024. By 2024 it got the lower cost delivered electricity price it needed, boosted by offering demand response management services to the grid (for a handsome fee) and presto – Tiwai Point is due to continue as a green aluminium export leader for another two decades. A win-win-win!

Oliver Yates has provided a financially robust solution that gives a win-win-win, for Australia, for the workers and for Rio Tinto’s Tomago. A Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to leverage the Federal government balance sheet to dramatically lower the cost of capital whilst underwriting deployment of $14bn of new firmed renewables infrastructure across NSW to deliver a globally competitive low electricity price, to make Tomago financially viable for the long term in the zero emissions industry future the climate science shows we need.

But NSW Premier Chris Minns will also need to step up, rather than leaving all the heavy lifting to his Federal counterparts. The countdown to the expiry of AGL’s power supply contract in December 2028 is well advanced. NSW will need to deliver a binding commitment to rapid evaluation and approval of major new wind, solar and battery investments - something our state has been seriously challenged in delivering on.

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CALLS GROW TO CURB MASSIVE DIESEL FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDY

Excellent to see Climate Change Authority Chair Matt Kean backing calls to overhaul the wasteful and regressive $12bn annual subsidy that includes a $3bn per annum taxpayer-funded rebate for Australia’s biggest mining firms, who continue to preference high emissions, expensive imported diesel fuel in their operations, directly undermining Australia’s decarbonisation efforts.

This massive tax break, the 15th largest expenditure item in Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ budget should be spent on incentivising mining equipment electrification technologies and onshoring energy generation and skills rather than propping up legacy industries and the Middle East OPEC oil cartel, from which Australia imports the vast bulk of its diesel.

BHP and Rio Tinto continue to fail to walk the walk as they yabber on about decarbonisation whilst funding fossil fuel lobbyists to urge that the rebate be retained, stalling our energy system transition and entrenching our imported diesel addiction.

The recent report by CEF’s Matt Pollard on this issue recommends a $50m pa cap on the subsidy, with big miners incentivised financially to re-invest any cash beyond that threshold on green alternatives to diesel. Not one farmer or truck driver will be affected, only the mining giants using the farmers as human shields for their continuing raids on the public purse. And the effect on them will be positive – to incentivise them to invest in low-cost green energy solutions.

>>> See the brilliant summation of the issue and slide deck by our partner Charlie Caruso, GM of Smart Energy Council WA.

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WEST AUSTRALIANS WANT A RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET

A new WA poll commissioned by our partners Solutions for Climate Australia released this week revealed that 74% of Western Australians want a Renewable Energy Target. At the moment, Western Australia is the only Australian state that does not have an RET. More than 80% of respondents said WA should increase the amount of renewable energy in the grid.

The push is supported by major unions and environment and social justice groups including Unions WA, Electrical Trades Union, AMWU, Smart Energy Council, WA Council of Social Services, and Greenpeace.

As reported in 9 media, Smart Energy Council WA manager Charlie Caruso said investors, developers and innovators were ready to deliver renewable energy projects across WA, but they need certainty. “A renewable energy target for the South West Interconnected System will send the right market signal and help WA capture the full benefits of the global energy transformation already underway,

>>> See the story in the SMH.

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WHITEHAVEN’S METHANE RECKONING

For those watching the UN climate talks this week, you may have heard Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley call for a global Methane Treaty. This should be a no-brainer for Australia, yet despite methane being one of our biggest climate challenges, we still have no national methane target. One reason may be that the federal Safeguard Mechanism aims to address this challenge across the country’s largest gas and coal facilities, but it has yet to drive meaningful onsite action across the sector.

In this newsletter, we share a first-of-its-kind collaboration with CarbonBridge’s Chris Wright to estimate the potential Safeguard liabilities of one of Australia’s largest coal miners. The attached slide deck outlines Whitehaven Coal’s potential liabilities under the Mechanism to 2030, highlighting both the gap between this potential and the social cost of its emissions, and the range of variables that could influence liability risk in the future. It provides an insightful look at our premier industrial emissions policy ahead of its proposed review next year, and highlights key reform opportunities for Whitehaven and the Clean Energy Regulator.

>>> See the published report in CEF’s website

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OUR MEDIA |

See all of our media here. Including free daytime electricity in households in Financial Times, Renew Economy China's green energy transition in South China Morning Post, Australia-US critical minerals agreement in Ausbiz.

Also see our partner Blair Palese’s excellent op ed on the Australian gas cartel in Climate and Capital Media.

OUR WORK |

See more of our latest work, including presentations on global decarbonisation and capital shifts.

PREVIOUS NEWS UPDATES |

Our previous newsletters covering major energy news can be accessed here. 

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AJ for Tim, Matt, Caroline and Fatima

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This newsletter is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal, investment or accounting advice, nor is it an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund. CEF is not responsible for any investment decision made by you. Unless attributed to others, any opinions expressed are our current opinions only. Certain information presented may have been provided by third parties. CEF believes that such third- party information is reliable, and has checked public records to verify it wherever possible, but does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness or completeness; and it is subject to change without notice.