Reimagining Australia's international relations.
A platform for collaboration between the development, diplomacy and defence communities.
Prediction in an Unpredictable World
Forecasting and scenario planning are important techniques that organisations use to manage risks and make decisions when confronted with uncertainty. But to what extent is the capacity to anticipate being affected by a more unpredictable and fast-moving world?
Join us on Thursday 31 July, 1:00-2:30pm (Canberra time) to hear from business, security and development experts on the forecasting and scenario planning methods they use, and how it informs their work.
Featuring:
- Hon Dr Andrew Leigh MP, Assistant Minister for Productivity, Competition, Charities and Treasury
- Bridi Rice, CEO of the Development Intelligence Lab
- Brett Savill, Chief Operating Officer at the Institute for Economics & Peace
- Dr Merriden Varrall, Partner, Geopolitics Hub at KPMG Australia
- Philipp Ivanov, Founder and CEO, Geopolitical Risks and Strategy Practice
- Benjamin Tansing, Director of Business Development APAC at RANE Network
- Ciaran O'Toole, Department Director, Southeast Asia and the Pacific at Conciliation Resources
- Isabelle Arradon, Director of Research at International Crisis Group
- Dr Joanne Nicholson, Senior Researcher at RAND Australia
- Owen Cooper, Senior Advisor at the NSC Futures Hub
- William Leben, Expert Associate at the ANU National Security College
Our people
The AP4D Advisory Group is co-chaired by Michael Wesley and Matthew Maury.
Recent commentary by Advisory Group members includes:
Susannah Patton on a long-running Thailand-Cambodia border dispute, education as a tool of statecraft, Australians' perceptions of China and 2025 foreign policy developments.
Jennifer Parker on what US strikes on Iran mean for Australia, the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz, Australia's defence spending, a potential Taiwan conflict, Australia's submarine pathway and other global security developments.
Huong Le Thu on Vietnam-China relations and preventing regional conflict.
Hayley Channer on a potential tariff on Australian pharmaceuticals and an Australia–Japan agenda for economic security.
Michael Wesley on Australia-Europe security collaboration.
Matthew Maury on the funding challenges confronting Australian NGOs.
William Stoltz on Australia's approach to stability in the Indo-Pacific.
Our program
Earlier this month AP4D launched two new papers as part of a Studies in Statecraft series that showcases work aligned with our mission of encouraging better statecraft.
Elizabeth Thurbon's and Oliver Yates' paper makes the case for a Clean Commodities Trading Initiative as an example of green energy statecraft in action. They describe how their model removes the risk in clean commodity innovation, and positions Australia to take advantage of renewable economy opportunities in a piece for Lowy Institute.
James Bowen's report outlines how Australia can better align different concepts of security under a comprehensive green security umbrella. In an article for The Mandarin he outlines the diplomatic value of Australia's ‘renewable superpower’ vision in this respect.
The launch also featured an expert panel who outlined the historical context of Australia’s climate and energy policies, how they’ve been perceived in the region, and the security implications of a business-as-usual approach. Click here to watch a recording.
In the news
AP4D has been featured in:
- South China Morning Post
- The Mandarin
- ABC News Radio
- ABC News TV
- Asia-Pacific Leadership Network
- The Interpreter (27 June & 14 July)
- Sasakawa Peace Foundation
AP4D staff have spoken at:
- Australian Peace and Security Forum
- RDI Network Exchange Conference
- Oceanic Conference on International Studies
