26 MARCH 2026

Welcome to our news round-up. See previous issues here.

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WAR-DRIVEN ENERGY CRISIS MEANS GOV’T MUST STAND UP TO FOSSIL FUEL LOBBY & PUSH THROUGH REFORMS

The US/Israel attack on Iran has delivered a cost-of-living crisis that is hitting every Australian: petrol and diesel prices are soaring, panic buying and shortages are emerging, and even EV drivers aren't immune as the pain is spreading through mortgage rates, grocery bills and the hit to markets and super balances. The crisis is likely to persist long after the immediate conflict subsides, with the destruction of LNG export infrastructure meaning global gas supplies and prices will remain severely disrupted. The IEA has flagged this as the most severe global energy supply disruption in history, equivalent to the twin oil shocks of the 1970s and the impacts of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Almost entirely dependent on foreign oil, Australia is among the most exposed nations on earth.

But the crisis could and should be a catalyst for meaningful and long overdue reform. The Albanese government is now reportedly considering a new levy on gas multinationals and further reform of the failed Petroleum Resources Rent Tax – long-overdue measures to collect a fair share of revenue from the blatant war profiteering by tax-dodging gas multinationals while ordinary Australians pay the price. 

Equally urgent is reforming the $11 billion annual diesel fuel subsidy that keeps Australia's mining and transport sectors addicted to volatile, hyperinflationary imported diesel fuel and vulnerable to price shocks – a position supported by Fortescue, which is one of the subsidy’s biggest beneficiaries,  the ACTU, the Climate Change Authority chair and Labor's own Environmental Action Network. BHP and Rio Tinto are wrong to say the technology solutions don’t yet exist - BHP has deployed renewable power in their Chilean copper mine back in 2022, and Rio Tinto is deploying XCMG EV mining trucks in Guinea iron ore today. Beyond time BHP and Rio Tinto were encouraged to invest in deploying solutions here in Australia, and follow the leadership being shown by Fortescue.

With Treasurer Chalmers flagging an ambitious budget response to global uncertainty, the message is clear: the government has a mandate and a moment to act with policy courage in the interests of all Australians, and it must use both. If not now, when? Let’s hope they do better than last week’s claimed capitulation, again, to the fossil fuel lobby, as the government joined with the Coalition and One Nation in the Senate to vote down a Greens amendment calling for a windfall profits levy.

>>> See Tim’s commentary on ABC TV NewsChannel, 7AM podcast and Michael West Media and in SMH and The Saturday Paper

>>> See the call for a gas war profits levy by our partners at the ACTU.

>>> See commentary in The Energy by our partner Prof Elizabeth Thurbon.

>>> See our report on capping the Fuel Tax Credit Scheme.

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NEW CEF REPORT: CHINA'S $120bn INVESTMENT BLITZ INTO GLOBAL CRITICAL MINERALS LEAVES AUSTRALIA EXPOSED

Report warns Australia's dig-and-ship economy faces a clear and present threat as China systematically diversifies away from Australian supply across lithium, iron ore and critical minerals

Our flagship new report released last week – Raw Power: China locks-in global dominance of critical minerals and metals with US$120bn outbound investment surge – finds that China is implementing a structural, state-directed investment strategy to secure dominance of global supply chains underpinning the emerging zero emissions world economy. This includes the mining and upstream value-adding of these value chains – critical minerals, strategic metals, and the processing capacity that converts raw resources into battery-grade materials and refined industrial inputs. 

CEF has tracked Chinese investment of over US$120bn in resource mining and upstream resource processing around the world since 2023 in lithium, rare earths, nickel, copper, high grade iron ore, bauxite, precious metals and other materials essential for cleantech and industrial decarbonisation.

This presents a clear and present economic risk to Australia, particularly as we have yet to move our world leading resources sector meaningfully beyond “dig-and-ship”.

The report finds that while Australia is the world's #1 exporter of both lithium and iron ore and holds world-significant reserves of materials key for industrial and energy transition  – bauxite, copper, nickel, rare earths –  it fails to process these onshore, ranking 105th of 145 countries on Harvard's Atlas of Economic Complexity, behind Botswana and Côte d'Ivoire, with manufacturing just 6% of GDP.

China is now building lithium supply chains across Africa and South America and anchoring the US$23bn Simandou iron ore project in Guinea. Once fully ramped up by 2029, Simandou will make Guinea the world's third largest iron ore exporter, directly threatening Australia's long iron ore dominance, as part of China's explicit strategy to reduce its 80% reliance on Australian and Brazilian supply.

In lithium, China's domestic production now outstrips Australia's, where as recently as 2023 Australia held a 50% global market share. The February 2026 closure of Albemarle's lithium hydroxide plant in WA is a stark consequence. A string of threatened closures across alumina, aluminium, nickel, copper and steel signals our value-add sector is under existential pressure.

Australia's Future Made in Australia (FMIA) green reindustrialisation initiative, backed by more than A$81bn in federal capital support since 2023, is directionally correct but must accelerate in ambition and execution to address this. We need a domestic green energy powered FMIA, this is a $500bn investment opportunity over the decade to 2035 if Australia is to modernise and embrace new energies and industries of the future, leveraging green energy statecraft by bilateral agreements to ensure a win-win, with our key North Asian trade partners investing in equity here in collaboration with Australian corporate leaders, as Korea and Japan did to build out the Australian LNG industry in previous decades.

The report’s recommendations include: balancing foreign investment support with targeted anti-dumping tariffs and onshore processing conditions; accelerating public capital deployment to crowd-in private investment; prioritising bilateral agreement to explicitly build a path to carbon pricing; and developing a Green Energy Statecraft framework including an Australia-China Green Transition Cooperation Framework to engage strategically with the world's cleantech leader before its diversification gathers further momentum.

CEF notes the geopolitical move by Japan’s JOGMEC in March 2026 to expand and extend the long standing collaboration with Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths to secure rare earth supply long term at an agreed and mutually beneficial price. This is the sort of strategic investment required to enhance global supply chain resilience and underwrite surety of supply. 

>>> See coverage of the report in SCMP, ABC The World Today, via AAP in Canberra Times, The West Australian, Daily Mail UK and syndicated to 100+ other mastheads, Yahoo Finance, Mining.com, Oil Price, Investor Daily, Green Building Africa, Northern Miner, Colitco, with a visual feature using CEF’s dataset forthcoming in the Financial Times, and a feature in mining magazine Paydirt next week.

>>> See op eds on the report by Associate Professor Marina Zhang of UTS-ACRI in The Lowy Interpreter, and CEF’s Matt Pollard in Renew Economy.

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Beijing’s New 5 Year Plan

Following our coverage in the last edition of Beijing's new 5 year plan see Tim’s commentary in Climate and Capital Media and on ABC.

China Energy Update: Jan-Feb 2026

• China's electricity generation rose +5.5% yoy to 1,693 TWh in Jan–Feb 2026, reflecting robust economic expansion despite US tariff pressures.

• Renewables held a 33% share of generation (24% from wind and solar alone):

  • Solar: +18.1% yoy → 191 TWh (11.3% share)

  • Wind: +10.0% yoy → 212 TWh (12.5% share)

  • Hydro: +6.3% yoy → 157 TWh (9.3% share)

  • Nuclear: +1.3% yoy → 76 TWh (4.5% share)

• Thermal power remains dominant at 60.4% share (1,023 TWh, +2.6% yoy), still far too high.

• Strong electricity demand aligns with broader economic data: industrial value-added +6.3% yoy and services +5.2% yoy in the same period.

• Trade surged: total goods imports/exports hit Rmb 7,732bn (+18.3% yoy), exports +19.2%, imports +17.1% — as China deepens trade ties beyond the US, though its large trade surplus remains a concern.

• Battery output soared +49% yoy, driven by the energy storage boom; EV production fell 14% yoy but off an exceptionally high base (+~50% in Jan–Feb 2025).

• Crude steel production fell 4% yoy, continuing a declining trend after a 1.5% drop in 2025.

>>> See the analysis by our colleague Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) here and more China details here.

>>> China National Bureau of Statistics Economic report for Jan-Feb' 2026, and NBS Electricity data.

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DESPITE YET ANOTHER FOSSIL FUEL WAR, REGULATOR FLAGS DROP IN POWER PRICES AS RENEWABLES BURGEON

At a time of renewed global hyper-inflationary fossil fuel prices thanks to Trump's attacks on Iran, the Australian Energy Regulator (AER)  last week flagged draft default market offer (DMO) electricity pricing down 1- 10% for residential consumers, and between 8% and 21% for small business consumers for the 12 months from 1 July. The final ruling is released in May, setting a price safety net for households and small businesses on standing offer electricity plans, and acting as a reference price to help consumers compare market offers – with clear advice from AER Chair Clare Savage to shop around for a better deal than the DMO.

Residential rates will fall in NSW by 2-8% yoy, SE Queensland will fall 10% yoy and South Australia by 1.3% yoy. Small business electricity rates will fall in NSW by 8-21% yoy, SE Queensland will fall 13% yoy and SA by 15% yoy.

This is consistent with the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) quarterly energy dynamics report highlighting that Australia hit a record high 51% renewable energy share in 4QCY2025, resulting in wholesale electricity prices falling by >40% yoy.

Climate Energy Minister Chris Bowen and his state counterparts are driving through reforms that are building new generation and firming capacity faster than the growth in demand, as well as sufficient to progressively reduce our reliance on increasingly unreliable, end-of-life coal fired clunkers. Now we need to double the speed of electrification and decarbonisation to permanently drive lower total energy prices, enhancing Australian energy independence and delivering on our critically important net zero emissions ambitions. We need to incentivise EV uptake to leverage this momentum and reduce the hyperinflationary impact of oil and diesel on our cost of living. Now is the time to accelerate a path to permanent solutions.

The draft determination also introduces the Solar Sharer Offer, a new opt-in electricity plan that includes 3 hours of free usage during the middle of the day to help households take advantage of abundant solar energy and lower total electricity system costs for all customers. This will work brilliantly with Community Batteries, allowing renters and apartment dwellers to benefit from Australia's continued expansion of low cost, zero emissions domestic solar energy. 

We note government subsidies on electricity bills – of $75 a quarter – ended at the end of 2025.

>>> See Tim’s commentary on ABC Illawarra  and ABC Gold Coast Drive and on ABC TV NewsChannel 

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SUN SHINES ON BOYNE SMELTER WITH $2B RESCUE PACKAGE

25 March 2026 saw Rio Tinto, the QLD Government and the Commonwealth Government strike a landmark partnership to secure the long-term future of the Boyne aluminium smelter in Gladstone. The partnership comprises $2bn in joint funding by the QLD and Federal Governments over 10 years to 2040, finalising the commitment made by QLD Government in August 2024 to commit $1bn to the future of the smelter.  

The long-term wind, solar and BESS power purchase agreements (PPAs) signed by Rio Tinto in recent years have underwritten $7.5bn in new renewable energy generation and storage. Rio Tinto Aluminium & Lithium Chief Executive Jérôme Pécresse highlighted that in the continued global destabilisation driven by the war on Iran, fossil fuels are becoming increasingly expensive, and that “this investment, combined with the PPAs we have signed, position Boyne to be among the world’s first aluminium smelters underpinned by wind and solar.”

Industry Minister Tim Ayres hailed the announcement as a ‘slam dunk’; with the funding package good for productivity, economic resilience, and crowding-in capital into electricity generation. While Rio Tinto’s counterparts in Tomago wait for statements of intent to be turned into taxpayer-funded guarantees, Minister Ayres made clear the difference in outcomes is at the state government level. State ownership and direction of energy infrastructure through Stanwell Corporation in QLD provided clarity on the scale of strategic public capital required to decarbonise the industrial energy requirements. 

The announcement is the latest in a growing line of taxpayer-funded bailouts for ageing fossil fuel exposed smelters and industrial sites, including the $600m for Mt Isa copper smelter, $135m for Nystar Port Pirie smelter, $2.4bn for Whyalla Steelworks, and a $1.1bn package to Alcoa’s Portland smelter. Australia’s smelters share a common thread: the energy-intensity of their operations, coupled with Australia’s systemic overexposure to fossil fuel instability, has eroded the viability of value-add and manufacture in Australia. 

Australia needs a clear, future-focused green metals and re-industrialisation roadmap that directs strategic, patient public capital into hand-ups, not hand-outs, to secure the future competitiveness and viability of manufacturing in Australia. This can be achieved through targeted investments that crowd-in private capital in building out renewable energy generation, storage and enabling infrastructure to shield industry from the volatility and instability of global fossil fuel markets. 

The announcement today of the Boyne smelter package to support the transformation to clean energy, and the active development of an electricity solution for Tomago with Snowy Hydro, are positive signs the Federal Government is moving in the right direction. 

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HUGE NEW WA WIND PPAs POINT TO A POST-COAL POWERED FUTURE

The WA Government has locked in the delivery of more than 1GW of new wind generation capacity for the state, signing a series of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) for 930MW through state-owned Synergy and Water Corporation. 

• 470MW Parron Maam Marang Farm – owned and operated by Zephyr Energy – is expected to produce electricity by late-2028. 

• 130MW Kondinin Wind Farm – owned by Kondinin Energy, a JV between Shell Energy and Foresight Group – is expected to produce electricity by late 2028. 

• 330MW of the 550MW Marri Wind Farm – owned by Alinta Energy – expected to produce electricity in 2029. 

Together, these PPAs provide more than the 810MW required to replace the State’s retiring coal fired power fleet. This is a significant and welcome step forward to scale up the ambition and contributions of WA to the Federal Government’s ambitious but achievable target of 82% renewables by 2030. CEF applauds the initiative of the WA Government as it steps up to enable and crowd-in private capital to regional areas, creating low-cost, decarbonised, domestically-produced energy to build energy independence and shield Australian households and industry from volatile, insecure global fossil fuel markets. 

The rollout of wind and batteries has been a driving force to easing wholesale power prices in Australia’s electricity markets, soothing price volatility as the AER’s proposed new Default Market Offer reduces prices across NSW, QLD and SA, as noted above. A lot more speed and scale is needed to achieve Australia’s targets, but progress continues to be made. 

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LIBERTY BELL TOLLS – FOCUS MUST NOW TURN TO INFRABUILD

The slow moving train wreck of Sanjeev Gupta continues as GFG Alliance’s Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter in Tasmania has entered voluntary administration. Distressed debt investor White Oak Global Advisors, a major lender to Gupta’s GFG Alliance, pulled the trigger on the voluntary administration of Liberty Bell Bay to recover US$200m in outstanding loan payments that were due in 2021. Liberty Bell Bay operated at a net loss of $80.3m in FY2025 with a capital deficiency of $121.4m.

Gupta purchased the smelter in 2020 from South32, flagging the long-term, net-zero plans for the smelter for years and security of the workforce. As Joe Aston highlighted in 2023 when Gupta was falsely hailed as a hero for pledging $500m for a new electric arc furnace (EAF) for Whyalla if the South Australian Government stumped up $50m: “this pledge was taken at face value by our politico-media establishment rather than recognised as a plain extension of Gupta’s rampant piss-taking.”

This $500m empty promise was the same promise he made in June 2020; promising a new EAF and direct reduced iron facility to commence construction in 2021. It never happened. 

Pulled right from the Gupta playbook, the Tasmanian Government was hoodwinked into providing a $20m loan facility for the purchase of manganese ore to re-start operations, using $14.5m of that to buy a one off shipment of 23,000 tonnes of ore, delivered in October 2025. Operations have not resumed. 

In March 2026, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) applied to the Supreme Court of NSW  to put into administration Liberty Bell Bay  – a subsidiary of GFG Alliance – over its failure to lodge financial statements for five years. It has failed to comply with court orders to produce financial reports since 2021, prompting ASIC to commence insolvency proceedings. This is not the first time ASIC and the Supreme Court of NSW have taken action against GFG Alliance, with Liberty Primary Metals and Tahmoor Coal also receiving court orders in 2025 for failing to lodge financial reports. 

The trend is clear across GFG Alliance’s operations: workers and their communities get screwed, taxpayers are on the hook, and strategic public capital and resources continue to be squandered on debacles rather than put towards projects that advance the sustainable industrialisation vision of Future Made in Australia. 

InfraBuild is now the only asset still in Gupta’s control, with Gupta losing his eleventh-hour bid to install voluntary administrators to the Tahmoor coal mine in NSW and stave off a competing liquidation process lobbed by Coal Mines Insurance. 

It is beyond time ASIC held the GFG Alliance directors accountable and put InfraBuild into administration as well as a step towards finding a viable credible long term owner of this key Australian business that employs thousands of Australian workers, given the critical national security and sovereign capability opportunities of building green steel capabilities in Australia. GFG Alliance has long made a farce of Australia’s corporate regulatory process. Now is the time for action across the board.

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This newsletter is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal, investment or accounting advice, nor is it an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund. CEF is not responsible for any investment decision made by you. Unless attributed to others, any opinions expressed are our current opinions only. Certain information presented may have been provided by third parties. CEF believes that such third- party information is reliable, and has checked public records to verify it wherever possible, but does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness or completeness; and it is subject to change without notice.