28 OCTOBER 2026

Welcome to our news round-up. See previous issues here.

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WA’S NEW 75% BY 2031 RET A HISTORIC STEP THAT MUST NOW BE MATCHED BY MINING INDUSTRY

We welcome the West Australian Government’s announcement this week of a 2030/31 75% Renewable Energy Target (RET) for WA’s main energy grid – the South West Interconnected System (SWIS).

This is a strong, historic move forward for Western Australia and a meaningful signal to investors and industry, and we congratulate the WA government on this key step. If achieved, all coal generation will be replaced by renewables by 2030/31, and we will see a material decline in gas generation, critical progress in line with the climate science. And the target needs to be a floor, not a ceiling.

But we also need to leverage the power of Australia’s world leading mining majors based in WA and have them collectively work towards a renewables strategy for the Pilbara focussed on electrification and decarbonisation, including electricity Common User Infrastructure to service the region – the world’s #1 source of iron ore. A great start by Fortescue this week with a 20-year PPA with Pilbara Minerals.

In concert with government, they should be accelerating the rollout and deployment of firmed renewables and infrastructure to enable a rapid shift from imported high-emissions diesel-based mining operations, and to facilitate onshore processing of our resources using clean energy, adding value and positioning WA as a key player in the rapid greening of global resources supply chains – a key and overdue industry pivot. It is critical that our mining industry now build bilateral trade agreements, for example on DRI and green iron exports, to leverage the green resources supply chains of our key north Asian partners as they rapidly decarbonise.

The new RET is a welcome advance for the South West Interconnected System. This must now be matched by similarly ambitious accelerated action towards a renewable energy future in the Pilbara.

A notable recent development is state and federal approvals for South Korean steelmaker POSCO’s proposal to produce 2Mtpa of hot briquetted iron (HBI) in the Pilbara – still a long way to a Final Investment Decision, but an important step forward. HBI is an essential input for producing high-grade steel in electric arc furnaces, and securing supply is vital as the steel industry transitions to decarbonisation.

Australia needs to focus on Green Energy Statecraft to leverage the scale of opportunity that developments of this sort represent. We urge Trade Minister Don Farrell to work with South Korea to build the case for a bilateral trade agreement and public private collaboration, critically important as Australia's third largest export destination. South Korea earlier this month announced a massive A$1 trillion investment over 10 years under its Green Transformation (K-GX) National Strategy which aims to simultaneously achieve carbon neutrality and economic growth by promoting the green transition across all industries. 

As Australia’s trade partners move, we need to get with the action or risk being left behind.

>>> See CEF’s media release on the WA RET & a joint release with our partners from Solutions for Climate WA – we congratulate the SCA team on coordinating the successful push on this much needed reform. 

>>> See Tim’s commentary in AFR, Renew Economy, Climate Control News, and on ABC Pilbara Radio.

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MINNS’ “REPREHENSIBLE” MOVE TO OVERRIDE HIGH COURT ON COAL MINE TRASHES RULE OF LAW

This month, in a landmark first, the High Court effectively invalidated approval for extension of MACH Energy’s Mount Pleasant coal mine in the NSW Hunter Valley. As we wrote in Renew Economy and Pearls & Irritations, this would have doubled the mine’s production to 21 megatonnes (Mt) per annum, for a total 870 Mt of CO2 equivalent emissions, roughly twice Australia’s annual emissions. Another massive Australian-supplied climate bomb.

A 3-2 majority found that the NSW Independent Planning Commission (IPC) failed to consider imposing conditions to minimise, to the greatest extent practicable, all of the project’s GHG emissions, including Scope 3 emissions, some 98% of the project’s total. 

The High Court ruling was quickly followed by a further twist. Capitulating to threats from the MACH Energy to cut jobs, NSW Labor Premier Chris Minns announced special legislation to override the High Court’s decision, authorising MACH to increase the mine’s annual output by 32% (4 million tonnes) to 16.5 million tonnes per year through to 2032. 

Former Supreme Court judge Anthony Whealy, now with the Centre for Public Integrity, says the intervention is “reprehensible”, ignores the “rule of law”, and sets “a dangerous precedent”. Greens MP Sue Higginson commented that “under Labor the coal mining giants are writing the laws, …that will cause significant unassessed climate pollution and hurt communities”.

Fossil fuel mining proposals’ cost benefit analyses submitted as part of the approval process count the benefits of a mine (royalties, tax, wages and supplier spending) but almost none of the externalised cost of the coal burning’s emissions. Scope 3 emissions are either omitted by convention or scaled down to an irrelevant share of their global cost on the grounds that they occur overseas – entirely ignoring that there is one atmosphere, irrespective of where our coal is burned.

In our view, the key test for approval should be a cost-benefit analysis that prices all emissions, including Scope 3, at levels set in established carbon markets, such as the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) price or the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) price. Applying the EU ETS of €85/tonne, or even ACCUs at A$38/tonne, the negative carbon liability would vastly outweigh the localised benefits and almost no new coal mine proposal would pass the test: the market at work.

Further, Minns’ move underscores how critical it is for NSW to invest in building out new low-emissions industries and jobs aligned with climate science. Policies to pivot coal mining from reliance on expensive, high-emissions imported diesel to electric mining trucks powered by domestic renewables are key.

Predictably, the coal lobby is cheering Minns, claiming the High Court ruling puts investment at risk. The real investment risk for coal investors is flagging demand in a global marketplace where our key trading partners are transitioning to economy-wide decarbonisation – and will depend less on our coal exports.

South Korea's new Korean Green Transformation plan commits about US$747bn to 2035, and targets 100GW of renewable capacity by 2030 and decarbonisation of the five highest-emitting industries including steel. Korea plans to develop a roadmap to phase out its 60 coal-fired power plants by 2040.

This is an opportunity for Australian Green Energy Statecraft: a Korea-Australia bilateral agreement for green value-adding of our commodities – such as green iron and steel –  sold to Korea under assured long-term offtake. Unlocking this potential requires domestic policy that ensures polluters pay, including extending the Safeguard Mechanism’s coverage, and creating a path towards an Asian carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). 

Meanwhile, we note that the Albanese government has approved dozens of new, expanded or extended coal, oil and gas projects since it came to power, making great strides on clean energy while egregiously betraying future generations on fossil fuels. It must now consider whether or not to approve the largest coal mine extension in NSW history. This High Court decision should give them pause.

>>> See Tim on ABC TV’s The Business and our full op eds in Renew Economy and Pearls & Irritations.

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AUSTRALIA’S INSANE DIESEL ADDICTION: TIME TO ELECTRIFY MINING AND BOOST ENERGY SECURITY

A new report released today by our partners at the Climate Council,  Crude Awakening, confirms that Australia is addicted to diesel –  a dependency that undermines our energy security and keeps us vulnerable to energy shocks, drives up cost of living, slugs taxpayers billions and accelerates climate catastrophe. 

Key facts from the report:

• We are the world’s largest seaborne importer of diesel, importing around 90% of what we use, and have nearly exhausted our own supply. We outrank every other major economy for diesel use per person, and demand is rising: two and a half times what it was in 2000. 

• From March to August, Australia picked up the world’s biggest diesel tab from the war on Iran: $9 billion extra, or more than twice as much as the next highest country. 

• Higher fuel prices have cost Australian drivers an extra $5 billion since the Iran war began. By late September, this was adding up to $300 million extra a week. 

• Transport costs jumped 9.2% in March alone, and road freight costs rose a record 17.6% in the year to June. That pushed up the cost of the weekly shop, and inflation. 

• Temporary fuel relief at the pump cost $3.3 billion in lost government revenue. When the relief ended, fuel prices jumped 14.8% in a month, and we remain vulnerable to the next shock.

We note that our reliance on this expensive, high-emissions fossil fuel is forecast to continue rising over the rest of this decade (see chart below), notwithstanding the doubling of global diesel prices amid Trump’s open-ended war on Iran.

Oil could hit US$150 a barrel if the war drags on, making Australia’s exposure as the world’s largest diesel importer dramatically more expensive and risky, increasing our economic vulnerability to rolling energy crises.

As the Climate Council report notes, “road freight and mining burn 65% of our diesel. Electrifying these sectors means we can effectively protect ourselves from another oil shock…Mining has enormous profit margins and the technology to go electric.”

With their bill for guzzling imported diesel in the Pilbara doubling, you would think it almost material enough to warrant action from major miners like Rio Tinto and BHP to prioritise displacing diesel from their operations and accelerating electrification, enhancing their supply chains, productivity and energy security – and Australia’s national security.

A key barrier is the increasingly insane federal Fuel Tax Credit Scheme. As the Climate Council observes “taxpayers handed the 18 biggest miners $3.4 billion in fuel tax credits last year to keep burning this fossil fuel.”

It was great to see Fortescue sustainability director Bronwyn Grieve buck the recent AFR Energy and Climate Summit’s decarbonisation inaction theme and speak about the importance of Australian corporates aligning with climate science and accelerating decarbonisation, including diesel displacement. 

Grieve highlighted how limiting diesel use in mining could boost Australia’s energy sovereignty. Replacing Fortescue’s diesel fleet, she said, could remove around one billion litres of diesel-equivalent consumption each year by 2030 – a huge economic opportunity.

She also argued that the diesel fuel credits mining firms receive render the impact of the Safeguard Mechanism nugatory, undermining the investment case for decarbonisation.

Very refreshing relative to the self-serving drivel from the fossil fuel majors and foreign lobbyists.

Fortescue is aggressively investing around $1bn annually to onshore its energy system and permanently cut its addiction to expensive imported diesel. Its latest results show 21 electric excavators operational, with six outperforming their diesel equivalents and two heavy mining equipment fast chargers being commissioned ahead of the first battery-electric truck arriving later this year.

CEF calls for a Team Australia approach to common-user electricity infrastructure for our mining majors, and for the fuel tax credit regime to be capped and pivoted into a tailwind for mining electrification and energy security. This could unlock billions in regional investment, enhance mining productivity and create thousands of skilled onshore jobs.

A win-win-win for Australia. If only BHP and Rio Tinto were willing to play ball.

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IGNORE THE FOSSIL FOOLS: AUS HAS AMONG CHEAPEST POWER IN WORLD THANKS TO RENEWABLES

AEMO’s Quarterly Energy Dynamics released last week reports that record high third quarter renewable energy share has resulted in record low electricity prices, down 30-50% over the last decade in real terms, notwithstanding another global energy crisis, this one instigated by Trump’s war on Iran.

Though you wouldn’t know it reading the anti-renewables garbage spewed by the LNP and One Nation, this is a massive win for consumers attributable in no small part to the policies of Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen.

Wholesale spot prices across the National Electricity Market (NEM) averaged $63/megawatt hour (MWh), down 27% from 3QCY2025 and down 15% from 2QCY2026. This was the lowest 3Q average since 2021, in nominal terms (and down materially more in real terms in this high inflation environment).

Even the Australian Financial Review acknowledges that Australia has among the cheapest electricity in the world. Only Brazil and the US had a lower wholesale price than Australia’s NEM year to date 2026, while the price in Victoria’s state grid was lower than every other major economy, according to a new report by Rystad Energy.

The AEMO QED finds that:

• Renewable generation supplied a record Q3 share of 44.3% of NEM generation, up from 41.8% in Q3 2025. Grid-scale solar generation increased by 512 MW (+30%) to a new Q3 high of 2,211MW, while hydro generation increased by 209MW (+15%) to 1,572MW, more than offsetting a 280 MW (-6.0%) decline in wind generation.

• Gas-fired generation decreased by 453MW (-34%) to its lowest Q3 average since 2000. Why then do we continue to see the AEMO Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) flagging a massive and rising need for gas in our electricity system? It is imperative that fossil fuel vested interest funding is purged from AEMO to ensure the integrity of its projections. Batteries are eating gas electricity demand, even as electrification is eating gas demand in homes and industry.

• Energy shifted by grid-scale batteries more than tripled YoY. Batteries charged 13.4 gigawatt hours (GWh) of energy per day on average during daylight hours (1000 to 1600 hrs), discharging 10.9 GWh during the evening peak (1600 to 2100 hrs) in Q3 2026. This compared to 3.7 GWh charged and 3.2 GWh discharged per day on average during the respective periods in Q3 2025. 

• During the evening peak, grid-scale batteries supplied 8.0% of total generation, exceeding the contribution from gasfired generation (5.1%) for the first time in any quarter.

• Distributed solar output increased by 372MW (+13%) to a record 3QCY2026 average of 3,203MW. 

• With growth in distributed PV output exceeding the underlying demand increase, operational demand fell 55MW (-0.2% yoy) to an average 22,268MW. A remarkable outcome of Australia's world-leading rooftop solar boom – which has accelerated by a third to a record 4GW annual run-rate in 2026 – is that for all the hype about data centres, on-grid electricity demand has continued to progressively fall over the last 8 years. A credit to the huge ongoing success of Minister Bowen's Cheaper Home Battery Scheme.

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CLEAN ENERGY REGULATOR REPORTS RENEWABLES INVESTMENT UP

In another promising sign, Clean Energy Regulator data shows renewable energy investment is lifting. Final investment decisions (FID) for large-scale renewable generation have reached a new annual record in 2026 of 5GW, with 3 months still to go – already higher than the previous full-year record of 4.9GW.

• 1.1GW of wind capacity reached FID in 3QCY2026, the highest quarter on record for wind, with solar FID at 1GW, taking Australia to 3.5GW in 9MCY2026, a new annual record.

• Cheaper Home Batteries approved capacity has more than tripled during 2026, growing from 5.0 GWh at the end of 2025 to 15.3 GWh at the end of Q3. With total home battery capacity, including that installed before the scheme, around 19 GWh, more than 5 times greater than when the scheme began. Another 1.9 GWh of home battery capacity was added in Q3 alone.

• Rooftop solar added 90,042 installations and 894 MW in Q3, while capacity in Q3 was 35% higher than Q3 2025 and installations in Q3 were 39% higher than Q3 2025. Rooftop solar has added 2.8 GW in 2026 YTD, almost matching the whole of 2025. Capacity is 45% higher YTD than at the same point in 2025.

2027 is likely to see this accelerate further thanks to the 20% capital subsidy introduced from October 2026 for Commercial and Industrial (C&I) rooftop solar, including for the ag sectors.

That is all just as well, given coal clunker closures are inevitable and looming: Mark Collette, MD of EnergyAustralia, said his company still plans on 2028 closure of the Yallourn power station announced in 2021, while Frank Calabria, CEO of Origin Energy likewise confirmed at its AGM his firm remains focussed on closing Eraring in April 2029, Australia’s biggest coal fired power plant.

Given all of the above, so much for the latest coal and gas revival, spruiked so energetically by various fossil fuel adjacent interests at last week's AFR Energy and Climate Summit. 

>>> Read an excellent critique of the AFR jamboree by Ethinvest CEO Trevor Thomas in The Energy.

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COLLIE COAL JOB LOSSES SIGNAL CHANGING ENERGY DYNAMICS AS RENEWABLES SURGE

Collie, a historic coal centre in southwest WA, is a picture of changing energy dynamics. Premier Coal announced last week it will cut the workforce at its Collie coal mine by ~150 roles as it moves from 24/7 to just a day shift operation, a reduction in force of about 40%.

As Tim told the ABC, while the decision by Premier Coal came sooner than the government was prepared for, but renewable projects across the state are steaming ahead. Customers can be confident there's not going to be significant impacts to the energy grid from this. Open Electricity shows coal generated 24% of SWIS electricity in FY2026, while renewables dominated at 40% (half of this from rooftop solar). 

Since 2022 taxpayer money has been pouring into Collie to prepare for coal's exit, with Premier Roger Cook's announcing a $230m Collie Industrial Transition Fund laying the groundwork for several new industries (to date few have reached a final investment decision).

Last month, $58m in funding was announced for rehabilitation, road infrastructure and workforce transition initiatives in Collie, including targeted voluntary redundancy measures. In May, the WA government also flagged Collie as a potential home for a new manufacturing defence hub.

Utility scale firmed renewables are gaining real momentum in the region ahead of scheduled coal power closures. 

Tim was pleased to have the opportunity this week to visit one of the two utility battery energy storage systems (BESS) in Collie – the two largest operating batteries in the world today. February saw Synergy’s 500MW/2,400MWh 5 hour BESS commissioned. This adds to Neoen Australia’s 560MW, 2,240MWh BESS opened in 2 phases over 2024/25. 

Last week WA-based developer Lacour Energy submitted plans to the shire for a huge $2-3bn wind and battery hybrid development, the 500MW West Arthur wind farm and a 500MW/ 2,000MWh BESS. Also in the area are: Green Wind Renewables’ 600MW Ambrosia project in JV with Macquarie Group's Aula Energy; ACCIONA Energía’s massive 3GW Bellwether wind farm proposal, centred on Darkan, a $10bn multiphase proposal; RES Australia’s 800MW Dardadine wind project 40 km NE of Collie;  and Vestas’ 150MW Bowelling wind farm, 30km NE of the town. April 2026 saw WA Energy Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson announce the $655m Clean Energy Link – East grid investment to advance more renewables.

CEF sees now as the perfect time to announce a public-private support for Generation Steel's new recycled scrap and renewable electricity powered Collie Electric Arc Furnace.

>>> See Tim’s commentary on ABC.

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DATA CENTRES MUST BRING NEW CLEAN OR CONSUMERS WILL CARRY THE CAN

Data centres are a key flashpoint in the current iteration of the energy wars, with the sector burgeoning at a rate not seen in previous industrial transformations, coupled with mounting community concern about impacts.

A case in point: At the end of its four-phase rollout, Singapore's Zerra DC's proposed behemoth – the A$32bn Western Downs Digital Park at Dalby, 200km west of Brisbane – could draw a massive 2.2GW pa of electricity. 

Zerra says it is committed to building a positive social licence to operate, including local jobs –1,500 construction and 1,400 permanent, it claims – a substantial Community Benefit Agreement and air rather than water cooling, but we do need to see enforcement of this commitment over the multidecade project life as part of its approval. There must be material consequences if fancy words at the outset do not translate to a reality once approvals are given.

However, on Energy Minister Chris Bowen's strategic policy priority of ‘bring your own new renewable energy’ (BEYONCE), Zerra is deflecting, choosing to highlight the problem of the split responsibilities of landlords, like Zerra in this instance, vs tenants, like AI frontier lab Anthropic, which has signed its first lease in Australia for this particular data centre proposal): the landlord is responsible for the grid connection and services, the tenant is responsible for paying for energy supply. 

As Tim told the ABC, who pays for that power production is a dilemma. Both sides needed to be "collectively held to account" to commit to new renewable energy generation. If they aren't held to account in substance over the life of the project, we will inevitably see higher power prices for everyone across Queensland as a result.

We note that Zerra and Anthropic are both globally significant firms looking for accelerated approvals; as such they can jointly bring a solution i.e. a legally binding commitment to utilise 100% net new renewable energy over the multi-decade project life, even if this is phased up over time. A BESS would complement existing gas-peakers.

Noting data centre proponents are well-funded and “getting significant capital globally”, the CEFC has now sensibly stepped away from supporting data centre development, as reported in The Energy.

>>> Read Tim’s commentary on ABC on the proposed QLD Western Downs Digital Park, and watch Tim’s deep dive on data centres on the Stress Tested podcast this week.

>>> See our media release with our Carbon Zero Initiative partners: Data Centres must BYO clean energy or households and businesses will pay

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IN CHINA, SOLAR AND WIND ADVANCE AS COAL DECLINES

In September 2026, China’s total power generation grew modestly by 0.9% year-on-year. Zero-emissions energy generation consistently outpaced this slight demand growth, leading to a third consecutive monthly decline in fossil fuel generation. September data highlights the importance of a diversified clean energy mix: growing solar, wind, and nuclear power offset weaker hydropower output, while coal generation continues to decline. Accelerating renewables deployment, along with investment in grid and storage solutions, should remain a priority to turn these monthly coal declines into a lasting structural trend.

Total generation. China’s total power generation reached 900 TWh in September 2026, up 0.9% year on year. In the first nine months of the year, total generation rose to 8,052 TWh, up 3.5% year-on-year. ☀️ 

Solar and wind continued to outperform overall generation growth. Year-to-date, solar output surged 16.1%, accounting for 13.2% of total generation, while wind grew 4.9%, contributing 10.6%. In September alone, growth was even more pronounced, with solar energy increasing by 22.2% and wind by 16.1%.

Coal generation fell 1.5% yoy to 465 TWh in September, marking its third consecutive monthly decline. Despite this, coal still accounted for 53.4% of total generation year-to-date, up 0.7% year-on-year. The objective remains to turn these monthly coal declines into a sustained structural trend and accelerate the process.

In September, solar remained China’s leading source of new power capacity, while wind and hydropower also recorded strong growth. Nevertheless, the continued addition of fossil capacity remains difficult to reconcile with China’s long-term decarbonisation ambitions.

By September 2026, China’s total installed power capacity had reached 4,132 GW. Renewable capacity stood at 2,470 GW, representing 60% of the total, while zero-emissions capacity—including nuclear power—reached 2,539 GW, or 61%. 

Solar remained the largest source of new capacity in 9MCY2026, contributing 110.8 GW, equivalent to 44% of all additions. However, solar installations were still 54% lower year on year, reflecting the substantial slowdown from 2025’s policy-driven deployment peak. Wind contributed another 60.7 GW, or 24% of new capacity, although its additions were down 1% year on year.

Fossil power additions reached 66.3 GW in 9MCY2026, up 17% year on year and accounting for 26% of all new capacity. Although zero-emissions deployment remained nearly three times greater, the addition of another 7.5 GW of fossil capacity in September is concerning.

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CLEANTECH EXPORTS REACHED ANOTHER RECORD HIGH

China’s cleantech exports reached $31,843m in September, another record high (Ember China cleantech exports track – Figure 5). Q1-Q3 2026, exports of electric vehicles grew 72.3%, lithium batteries 36.4% (various types of storage batteries 34.8%), photovoltaic products 10.3%, and wind turbine generator sets and their components 22.4%. Private enterprises recorded import and export values of US$3.4 trillion, up 19.1% and accounting for 56.9% of total foreign trade value (China Customs).  China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) exports reached 4 million units in the first nine months of 2026, up 130% year-on-year. Surging exports supported continued NEV production growth despite declining domestic vehicle sales.

>>> For further details, see CEF’s September China Monthly Energy Update published here.

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This newsletter is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal, investment or accounting advice, nor is it an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund. CEF is not responsible for any investment decision made by you. Unless attributed to others, any opinions expressed are our current opinions only. Certain information presented may have been provided by third parties. CEF believes that such third- party information is reliable, and has checked public records to verify it wherever possible, but does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness or completeness; and it is subject to change without notice.