CEF CHINA MONTHLY: ELECTRICITY SECTOR MOMENTUM IN 4MCY2026

Tim Buckley & Li Ang, Climate Energy Finance

26 May 2026

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CEF CHINA: ELECTRICITY SECTOR MOMENTUM SLOWS SO FAR IN 2026 

CEF is delighted to announce Li Ang (li@climateenergyfinance.org) has agreed to join our small think Australia-China focussed tank this month. Li has worked in Chinese renewables firms, advocacy and eNGO teams in China before recently moving to Sydney with her family.

China's value-added industrial production growth for the first four months of 2026 (4MCY2026 YTD) was 5.6% year-on-year (yoy), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Growth was led by high-technology manufacturing, which say YTD 2026 growth of 12.6% yoy.

Total passenger vehicle sales were -5.0% yoy YTD 2026, and new energy vehicle (NEV) sales were also a very weak -3.8% yoy, after huge NEV growth in CY2025. Domestic NEV sales in the month of April 2026 were +3.8% yoy, a distinct contrast to the -18.8% yoy total passenger vehicle market trend.

In the electricity sector, total electricity generation was +5.4% yoy YTD 2026, with a very robust +6.5% yoy reported for the month of April 2026 - Figure 1. Trump’s war on Iran did nothing to dent the robust Chinese economy. Hopes for the long forecast Chinese recession by western media seem overblown, yet again!

⚡Within the overall electricity generation performance in 4MCY2026:

🪨 Unfortunately China’s coal fired power generation YTD 4MCY2026 was +3.8% yoy to 1,890TWh contributing a dominant 56.3% share (+3.4% yoy for the month of April 2026), a dangerous reversal of the slow decline seen over CY2025. CEF still expects a plateau over CY2026.

🚰 hydro generation was ⬆️9.7% yoy YTD to 332TWh, giving a 9.9% share of total.

☢️ nuclear generation was ⬇️4.6% yoy to 151TWh, giving a 4.5% share of total.

☀️ solar generation was ⏫21.4% yoy to 404TWh, giving a 12.0% share of total.

🌬️ wind generation was ⬆️0.4% yoy to 410TWh, giving a 12.5% share of total.

China’s ongoing electrification of everything including data centres and EVs, as well as its continued strong GDP growth, means electricity demand is growing faster than GDP growth, as China replaces imported oil and diesel with domestic electricity to build energy independence.

China’s electricity capacity expansion continues to lead the world, unfortunately in all areas. China added a depressing 28GW of fossil powered capacity YTD 2026, +26% yoy,  as well as 3.6GW of new nuclear and 2.5GW of new hydro. Variable renewable energy adds totaled 74.6GW YTD 4MCY2026, -41% yoy - with solar installs down 51% yoy even as wind installs grew 7% yoy. Zero emissions capacity additions were still a dominant 74% of China’s total YTD 4MCY2026. Given the world record solar installs in 93GW added in the single month of May 2025, next month's capacity adds data is unlikely to reverse this slowdown trend.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), China's domestic utility-scale BESS installations reached 15.5GW / 44.5GWh YTD through April 2026, up 25-30% yoy.

China’s power battery exports for the 4MCY2026 YTD were 77.1GW, +47.5% yoy.

BMI reports that in the month of April 2026, China’s lithium-ion battery exports grew 30% yoy to US$8bn, and 42% yoy to 31.7GWh.

China’s Cleantech exports in the 4MCY2026 YTD have surged to US$25-26bn per month in March and April 2026, leveraged by Trump’s war on Iran. The US doubles down on fossil fuels, China and the rest of the world builds energy security by electrification and decarbonisation, in alignment with the climate science - Figure 3.

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